Construction costs are currently skyrocketing

  • Erstellt am 2021-04-23 10:46:58

MPK2000

2022-04-28 11:35:06
  • #1
Yes, the point is certainly valid. Two thoughts on this: Producer prices can only be passed on to consumers if there is pricing power... which I would doubt for many companies beyond a certain level. But yes, pressure is still in the pipeline. The question is where the pressure will be released. In the margins of the companies within the production chains or with the end consumers. On the topic of natural gas/gas. There is no energy source with higher full costs per kilowatt-hour of electricity than natural gas...
 

Neubau2022

2022-04-28 11:48:07
  • #2
Some background knowledge. Yesterday in a political talk show, the topic of the largest gas storage facility in Germany came up. It belonged to a subsidiary of BASF until the annexation of Crimea. 3 months after Crimea was occupied, BASF sold this gas storage facility to Gazprom. I found that at least very interesting.
 

WilderSueden

2022-04-28 11:55:00
  • #3
The pure price consideration falls short, regardless of the specific price we set (I don’t want to start that discussion here). With electricity, it is about aligning generation with demand. That is why there are baseload power plants, peak load (plus intermediate levels) with different costs. Gas is not a baseload technology but one for peak load. We have practically already phased out nuclear energy, and coal is supposed to be phased out soon. We close the gap created by highly fluctuating and hard-to-control wind and solar energy with gas. Closing the gap otherwise would be significantly more expensive. And it is typically German naivety to reduce gas only to electricity. The chemical industry needs gas and oil as raw materials. If that fails, all further products in the production chain also fail. And in many processes gas is directly needed as a fuel, the same applies here. Of course, that is often replaceable, but it would simply be much more expensive. The distinction between companies and consumers is again typically German ("Paritätische Versicherung"). Ultimately, the consumer always pays. A company is an organization whose goal and reason for existence is to make money. If the margin collapses, the operation will be shut down sooner or later.
 

MPK2000

2022-04-28 12:05:06
  • #4

Here it was initially "only" about the effects on interest/inflation. Now it is more comprehensive. Yes, some stakeholder will pay the bill in the end. But for interest/inflation, it is crucial who pays it. If businesses shut down, ceteris paribus, that also reduces pressure on interest rates.
 

WilderSueden

2022-04-28 13:00:42
  • #5
I want to hold back a little with predictions here, it's hard to forecast something. Too many effects are happening simultaneously and partly in opposite directions. But the interest rate is historically low. Even 3% for construction loans wouldn't be particularly high, and currently a lot of effort is being made to inflate away the value of the debts. In this respect, a few company bankruptcies will not automatically mean construction loan interest rates at 0.x%, absolutely not.
 

Oetzinger

2022-04-28 13:07:57
  • #6
In many industries, margins of 20% of sales have been achievable over the long term in recent years thanks to high demand. There can definitely be a bit of a squeeze without the business being shut down immediately.
 

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