chand1986
2023-01-05 18:54:23
- #1
Logically inconsistent. If you actually have to go to the capital market for pensions, demand flows there instead of into the real economy. Then precisely the real capital stock is nibbled away by demand shortfalls, which is supposed to finance that capital-funded pension later. Logically that does not add up. But you probably won’t realize it until you’ve driven the cart into the wall once, as with so many things. Inflation, excluding external shocks (oil price crisis, corona), is essentially the derivative of the increase in unit labor costs. That is probably the closest correlation you can find in economics. Logically it would mean: wages must rise with productivity plus the intended inflation (2% in this case). In the case of external shocks, it means tightening one’s belt. Not enforceable, and thus the system slowly erodes. Doesn't help if you know what needs to be done but it is not enforceable.So I can’t quite follow the first block. Do you mean that the state should actually pay the pension regardless of the contributions? Where does it say that? Or are you talking about benefits outside of insurance? It is controversial whether the subsidies cover these benefits or not, since that depends crucially on the precise delineation of the benefit. But I think going deeper into that is beyond the scope here... The second block describes the theoretical approach very well, but productivity gains must not only be passed on, they must also always be high enough to offset both inflation and demographic change. And that could (or should) have been foreseen with the introduction of the pay-as-you-go system that this would not always be the case. Now to the third: Theoretically, that is true for insurance. The pay-as-you-go system works well when the beneficiaries are statistically always fewer (or the benefits always lower) than the contributors (contributions). So in risk insurance and possibly health insurance. But since we live longer and have fewer children, this is programmatically not feasible for pensions. But in my model it would only partly be insurance (“the basic pension”). The rest would be an investment. This would actually be saved as an individual capital stock and invested according to choice, then consumed along with the resulting returns at the end of the working life. Herewith with corresponding choices: payment as a pension or as a lump sum. The advantages lie in the independence not only from the demographic and economic development of one’s own national economy but in better diversification (if one chooses appropriate investment objects). Viewed individually, there is also greater freedom and security because the payment amount depends on individual personal decisions and not on state decision-making processes. Now one might say, well that’s basically already the case. I am only of the opinion that the share of statutory pension contributions is much too high compared to the expected pension benefits. It has to be that way now because we have more and more retirees and fewer contributors. But sooner or later something has to change. Or you simply raise more taxes and make it completely tax-financed and via basic security. That would just not be enforceable, which is why my assessment is that realistically one will wait out the baby boomer generation.