Here once again is one of my all-time favorite forecasts on future developments.
After my forecast last year was greatly discussed here and still proved accurate, even though it was unimaginable for some. Mortgage interest rates have risen significantly to 4 percent within a year. And of course, they will continue to rise.
I expect 6-8 percent by the end of the year.
Just now I heard the postal workers' union is demanding a 15 percent wage increase in the new collective bargaining round. Now, as expected, a wage-price spiral is starting.
Why should real estate prices fall? Real estate prices tend to rise, possibly even sharply. Because here in the Eurozone we are seeing a drastic currency collapse which will ultimately lead to the end of the Euro. The timing will stretch out a bit but it will come. New construction will probably collapse, which also contributes to existing properties remaining value-stable.
So, of course, we always have to see this in Euro currency. In dollars or gold, prices for real estate can certainly also fall.
I also don’t believe that debt will just be inflated away. Incomes can only run after galloping inflation.
The incomes of postal employees, for example, have only risen by a total of 6 percent over the past 10 years.
Not per year, mind you, but in 10 years. What is a 15 percent wage increase today? Practically nothing.
The costs around the house will also increase significantly. The municipal rates are already being massively raised.
And yes, 5000 euros monthly income in 2021 simply are not 5000 euros purchasing power in 2023. Because purchasing power has almost halved.
Congratulations to those who invested long-term with low interest rates. That is now over. I know some homeowners who have fixed 30-year loans for the entire term. With that, I could also sleep peacefully for the time being.
On the pension issue, one can only say the following. Had not an infinite amount of money been misappropriated from the pension fund in recent years, our pensioners would now be living in well-deserved prosperity. They talk about 700 billion. One can also call it the great pension fraud.
The further development promises nothing good. Currently, everyone is patting themselves on the back. Finally, we are delivering more tanks to Ukraine. And there will be many more. So the conflict continues to be fueled. Ukraine rejected a three-day ceasefire for Christmas. No one is talking about peace negotiations. So this will continue to escalate.
Let’s see when the first German soldiers intervene in the war.
At least it is nicely warm, heating costs are manageable. That’s already positive!
