Construction costs are currently skyrocketing

Hmm why should interest rates fall again? The extreme low interest rate was actually the anomaly.

Stocks here are not getting cheaper either and mostly are sold under the table. BRW around 1,000€/sqm. New buildings are no longer affordable for "normal people" and then sit on ImmoScout and do not sell. Existing buildings are essentially renovated by local craftsmen, who are busy but if you are flexible, it can be done quite quickly. We turned a single-family house from 1978 upside down within 6 months and brought it up to KFW 85 standard. This year it continues. Advantage: After 6 months we live in our dream neighborhood in our own house, disadvantage: price-wise, including purchase price, we are quite a bit below new construction per sqm of living space, but it is still expensive. (Interest) as of today, I would not do it!

Hmm why should interest rates fall again? The extreme low interest rate was actually the anomaly.

Because no state can afford its debt at 3, 4, or 6% anymore.

Because no state can afford its debt at 3, 4 or 6% anymore.

But not in 2023. States have raised money with long-term loans during the low-interest phase, they will not refinance these this year. Until the interest pressure from new debt becomes painful, there is still water flowing down the Rhine.

I don't believe that the EU can just easily manipulate the interest rates. As long as inflation is high, unfortunately, nothing will change with the interest rates. But the ECB also cannot raise them infinitely. Inflation is expected to remain high in 2023, which means no decrease in interest rates. Above all, interest rates increased even without the decision in 2022; I think the first interest rate hike came in June/July. Interest rates already rose in February because it became apparent from December that inflation and the energy crisis were having an impact. Everything was, of course, then exacerbated by the war.

Hmm why should interest rates fall again? The extreme low interest rate was actually the anomaly.

The current interest rate difference between 5, 10 & 15 years fixed interest period is very small. The banks add a risk buffer to the longer-term loans. If it is low, at least the banks (& reinsurers?) are expecting a long-term declining interest rate environment.