This is self-inflicted suffering. The sawmills simply should pay the forest owners more, then they would also stop hoarding the wood. The price there is still at a very low level due to the oversupply caused by bark beetles and wind and snow damage.
Quick summary again: there is no shortage of roundwood. The sawmills are receiving more than enough supply. That is why the price is so low.
The shortage in the market exists for sawn timber. But only that is what the Americans are demanding. Whether they are really to blame for the shortage is at least questionable. The export quota was 40% in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021: also 40%.
Just ask the carpentry companies if they hoarded in the spring and now are immediately buying everything available to keep refilling their stocks. The vast majority with storage capacity will say "clearly." Toilet paper effect from 2020?!
The Americans will not pay any price either. Especially if the wood must be treated with CO2 before transport and the actual transport costs are added on top. If suddenly a house there is 20-30% more expensive than before, some will consider whether they really need to start building immediately. Especially since the signs for openings in the USA are currently green. Suddenly people there want to spend their money on restaurant visits, vacations (most of which take place within the USA), and other activities again.
Before the Ministry of Economic Affairs comes up with any export regulations, they will look very carefully at the export figures.
Or does anyone here have reliable figures confirming that suddenly much more is being exported?