Construction costs are currently skyrocketing

I am currently gathering offers for a photovoltaic system. Either I get no response at all or the prices are so expensive, beyond good and evil. I am not going to play that game. :rolleyes: I can build a photovoltaic system, but I don't have to. The craftsmen cannot pass on every price. In my opinion, the inquiries will decrease because of that.

I would be interested in your opinion on how the rising construction costs will affect the craftsmen and companies?
Here are a few theses from me

[*]No material, no service, no orders?!
[*]Too high a price (labor costs and/or material), low demand!?

Will it even threaten the existence of some craftsmen? What do you think?

I remember some threads last year where some loudly claimed that interest rates would definitely not rise in the next few years and therefore even advised people to choose a maximum fixed interest period of 10 years...

There has already been writing about "black swan"... we have here a generation of builders who have never experienced war closer than 3000km. It is such global major events that can then still break open entrenched things like the low-interest phase. Geopolitics can change everything if the will is big enough.

Yes... I know that. At the end of February I asked here whether I should rather take 10 years fixed at 0.74% or 17 years at 1.11% (loan-to-value under 50%). Most advocated for 10 years.
Phew... luckily I took the longer fixed interest period. That was also the last moment for the favorable interest rates.

A few years ago I got 20 years with 80% loan-to-value at 1.95% (10 years would have been around 1.50%). At that time, after intensive comparison, I was extremely satisfied with it. Then it went downhill even more... meanwhile, we are doing well again. That's just how it is.
With loan-to-value under 50%, however, I can well understand the recommendation for shorter terms, as the interest rate risk is manageable. Of course, now you can be very happy, because we probably haven’t seen such a sharp increase in a long time, despite the ECB’s 0.0% interest... maybe in three years we will experience something completely different again?
You have to be satisfied with the deal at the time you make it. With a 10-30 year time horizon, there will always be moments when you would have done better or worse. But there’s no point in getting upset about that.

Here are a few theses from me

[*]No material, no service, no orders?! [*]Too high price (wage costs and/or material), low demand!?

Will this even threaten the existence of some craftsmen? What do you think?

There will be very little happening this year, especially for heating and solar. The books are full, people are panicking and want to install their own photovoltaics or switch from gas to alternative energies. I hope that the craftsmen will slowly realize that supplies are not unlimited and will make fair offers again with good execution and customer orientation. Hope and so on…

Not much will happen this year, especially for heating and solar. The order books are full, people are panicking and want to switch to their own photovoltaics or from gas to alternative energies.

I hope that the craftsmen slowly realize that there is not an endless supply coming and start making fair offers again with good execution and customer orientation. Hope and all…

Yes, this year 2022 is over, that’s clear. The order books are full. For 2023 and further rising inflation, however, I see a turnaround. At the end of the day, it is a "luxury" that one can do without.

I would always base the installment amount on the household net income and set 30% as an absolute maximum. Although personally, I think that's already too high. House/apartment/rent is not everything in life.

You have it easy. Where do you live?

I would be interested in your opinion on how the rising construction costs will affect craftsmen and companies? Here are a few theses from me

[*]No material, no service, no orders?! [*]Too high price (labor costs and/or material), low demand!?

Will it even threaten the existence of some craftsmen? What do you think?

Yes, it is quite interesting. My crystal ball is still broken. I recently read an article somewhere speculating about short-time work in the construction industry. To me, that seems totally surreal given the still existing demand... but you can hardly install material that isn’t available. It has also been reported here several times how difficult it is to find a craftsman for smaller jobs because it hardly pays off for them to make a trip for that. That might possibly shift again? (Smaller orders are much more manageable in terms of material usage and possibly more short-term plannable – if large orders are sometimes stagnating, that sounds more attractive again). I don’t really see an existential threat right now. Those who seem to have the most problems are those who had long lead times and fixed price guarantees and now don’t know how to uphold them with the drastic increases in material costs. In my mind, that’s not the local craft business, but I really don’t know. I am too far removed from the industry for that.