Construction costs are currently skyrocketing

I base my assumptions only on probabilities and I consider the 5% to be significantly more likely than the 3% at the end of the year.

Experts are the people who are mostly wrong for various reasons. This is true for stocks, climate, corona, and probably also for [Bauzinsen] ;-)

We recently had to take out our modernization loan at 5% from our bank; unfortunately, we didn’t find it any cheaper and didn’t want to wait any longer (energetische Modernisierungen). We were quite surprised by that.

If we actually want to derive it somehow, then we have to look at the long-term interest rate chart for real estate loans, for example since 1972. And there we see:

A dramatic interest rate increase was always followed relatively quickly by a significant decrease. In 1972/73 the interest rate shot up to 11%, in 1977 it was at 6%. Then up to 11% in 1980, a low point in 1982 at 9.5% and around 7.5% in 1986. Etc.

So if we derive from experiences... how do we come to the conclusion that interest rates will now rise for 3, 4, 5, 10 years and no longer fall? The numbers since 1972 do not support that. So you look into the crystal ball... hope it is not a cursed Palantir...

We recently had to take out our modernization loan at 5% with our bank, unfortunately we couldn't find it any cheaper and we didn't want to wait any longer (energy-efficient modernizations). We were quite surprised as well.

Was the kfw loan with 0.01% not an option for you or was it not available yet?

:/

Didn’t the KfW loan with 0.01% interest come into question for you, or wasn’t it available back then? :/

It is only available for complete renovations on KfW-something. But we don’t reach that.