Construction costs are currently skyrocketing

There is an interview with a brick manufacturer on Zeit online today (title: "Some have started hoarding bricks like toilet paper"). I found it quite interesting, even though there isn’t really much surprising in it. The most interesting point is probably the thesis that the shortage has been further aggravated by hoarding (just like with toilet paper and the like). Although the costs have, of course, actually increased due to the high energy demand. That a gas embargo or gas rationing would be pretty fatal for the industry is not really surprising at this point, I think. The reporter mentioned that others (?who exactly is not quite clear to me here) are clearing out their warehouses, but the interviewee seemed rather surprised about that. The article also mentions some numbers minimally, but not really well-founded, rather very general.

… but we will certainly not return to the prices of 2020.

I never said or thought that either. However, I do believe that the tide is somewhat shifting from a seller’s to a buyer’s market. No one of us knows for sure. What is certain, however, is that the sales funnel of the industry is more likely to be emptying than filling up, and I hardly believe that all producers will suddenly go on short-time work and that the remaining customers will pass over to the competition. Those who stand still also generate no revenue. So this strategy cannot contribute to profit maximization.
I rather see room in the margins. RWE, Eon, Vattenfall, EnBw – all report record profits, which raises the question of how much the actual production cost increase really is/was and by what percentage only the margin has been further inflated. In any case, I see potential for a sideways movement of prices towards a SLIGHT decline as well as a stabilization of the availability of building materials starting in AUTUMN.

If the oil embargo comes, the pendulum will of course initially swing in the other direction. But if prices keep rising like this, even the well-off will jump off this horse, and then the entire industry will have a much more serious problem than just production capacities and delivery times. I think they know that too – the cow is slowly but surely milked dry.
At least our GU is carrying us on their hands at the moment. Every email is answered within 60 minutes. Price increases have really remained moderate over the last 3 months. Of course, a residual risk always remains.

If, however, the storage is now full to the brim for everyone due to hoarding and at the same time the demand collapses because of canceled projects (e.g. due to interest rate increases or uncertainties among investors / developers), the logical consequence should therefore be that prices will soon take a big hit...

I believe the cow has largely been milked. The hot air will now gradually escape.

Crazy, today we received a call from the municipality asking if we were still interested in a plot of land in the new development area that we had applied for about 2 years ago. Apparently, some have been returned and now they are going through the waiting list. And that in the Rhein-Main area. I wouldn't have thought that possible. "Unfortunately," we have just bought a new semi-detached house with the infamous towel garden from the developer, but probably the total costs would have been too high anyway with the currently crazy construction costs. Still a shame, 3-4 months earlier and we probably would have taken it…

However, I do think that the market is shifting somewhat from a seller's market to a buyer's market.

I also see the change; due to interest rates, many people have now reached the point where financing fails. But especially with materials, politics will continue to actively drive demand in the coming years. Besides the 400,000 apartments that are supposed to be built annually (somehow?) (which corresponds to a significant increase compared to the status quo), the topic of renovation in many trades will also keep demand high. Maybe not so much with steel now, but with insulation, windows, heating systems, photovoltaics.

how high the actual increase in production costs really is/was

There is the producer price index, which has risen sharply. Of course, various sectors are weighted differently there, and these sectors feed back into house construction in different proportions...

I also see the change, with interest rates many have now simply reached the point where the financing falls through. But especially in materials, politics will continue to actively ensure demand in the coming years. Besides the 400,000 apartments that are supposed to be built per year (however that may be?) (and representing a significant increase compared to the status quo), the issue of renovation in many trades will also keep demand high. Maybe not with steel now, but with insulation, windows, heating systems, photovoltaics.

There is the producer price index, which has risen sharply. Of course, various sectors are weighted differently there, and these sectors flow back into house construction in varying proportions...

The latest statistics I saw on the creation of living space showed fewer than 300,000 units for the year 2021 and thus the first year of decline since the early 2000s (or 2008, don’t hold me to that now). Haven’t the conditions for funding been extremely tightened? Even those renovating their little house usually need a loan, and they are hit equally hard by the current conditions. That is why I do not believe that renovation of existing properties can compensate for the collapse of new construction business. This actually affects many more areas. Basically everything that is abundantly found in new construction: concrete, steel, bricks, KG pipes, wood, cables, roof tiles, and much more. Those who renovate energetically, on the other hand, presumably focus on the insulation, heating, and—as far as the budget allows—windows and photovoltaics you mentioned. The former only competes to a limited extent with the new construction sector in monolithic construction or then is no longer a price driver. The latter is a “nice-to-have.” Accordingly, the in-between could continue to become more expensive, and after careful consideration, I agree with you on that.