Construction costs are currently skyrocketing

You are welcome to have a look. Denmark banned the construction of new oil and gas heating systems in 2013 and their replacement already in 2016. Nothing apocalyptic or astronomical about that. Maybe it’s because there are fewer Monday walkers in Denmark?

No. It’s because Denmark has a comprehensive district heating network. In Copenhagen, for example, over 90% of households use district heating. And in Hanover, just two years ago, there was an uproar because district heating was being expanded and was supposed to become mandatory in selected neighborhoods.

But it’s not so wild anymore. Only if the boiler itself breaks does the heating system have to be replaced. Everything else around it can be repaired. Oh, and when buying a house, you probably have to install a heat pump. But that makes sense—when else should properties be renovated if not when ownership changes???

And just by the way. OPEC has just reduced the production volume. Hopefully, no one really believes that oil and gas will ever fall significantly below the current prices again?

Maybe we will get down to 12 cents/kWh for gas and under 1.50 EUR for diesel at the pump again. But then the next CO2 pricing round will already come in 2027 because the market will decide via price then.

That doesn’t bother me much in my well (but not absurdly) insulated place. The gas meter shows 900m³ and that includes 4 weeks of heating program Vaillant, in December 2022. So up to -12°C outside and 27°C inside.
For the first inhabited year, I expect hardly more than 7,500 kWh, thanks to solar thermal. For 152m².

But for someone living in a house with an energy consumption of 35,000 kWh. Such houses still exist in abundance in the existing building stock.
How is he supposed to pay for his energy at gas prices of 20, 25 cents/kWh in 2027 at all?

That is the crucial question. The demand for gas in India and China is steadily increasing. This resource will not become significantly cheaper anymore. Impossible.

And just by the way. OPEC has just reduced the production volume.
Hopefully no one really believes that oil and gas will ever again fall significantly below the current prices?

Maybe we'll get down to 12 cents/kWh for gas again and under 1.50 EUR for diesel at the pump. But then in 2027 the next CO2 pricing round will already come, because then the market will decide by price.

That bothers me little in my well (but not absurdly) insulated place. The gas meter shows 900m³ and that includes 4 weeks of Vaillant heating program, in December 2022. So up to -12°C outside and 27°C inside.
For the first occupied year, I expect hardly more than 7,500 kWh, thanks to solar thermal. For 152m².

But those who live in a house with an energy consumption of 35,000 kWh. There are still plenty of those in the existing housing stock.
How is he supposed to pay for his energy at gas prices of 20, 25 cents/kWh in 2027 at all?

That is the crucial question. The demand for gas in India and China is steadily increasing. This raw material will not get significantly cheaper anymore. Impossible.

Those who recognize the signs of the times act and invest in the coming years and rejoice later.
The clock can no longer be turned back, even if many do not want to admit it.

I have an uncle, not even that old yet, who still thinks that e-mobility will never catch on.
That there is actually no adequate alternative to this if you take climate protection somewhat seriously, except largely refraining from individual transport, he does not understand. But he is also one of those who think climate fluctuations have always existed ...

But you will always have these people and never convince them when it comes to technological, ecological, or social change.
Let them keep hoping that oil and gas will come back on special offer ... It’s not worth struggling over it :)

Climate fluctuations have always existed, but never as much, as intense, in such a short period of time, strangely all exactly after the beginning of industrialization.
It is the same principle as with whataboutism. Unauthorized conclusions, transfers, omission of important information, etc.
As if someone had read Schopenhauer's dialectic and tried to apply it badly.

That kind of thing gets on my nerves.

My father-in-law is unfortunately somewhat similar.

My father, on the other hand, is different. He now already believes that climate change exists, and also probably that it is man-made or at least strongly influenced by humans, but he thinks it is no longer stoppable anyway and therefore one should rather consider methods to live with it.
That this might, however, also include European protective walls with automatic firearms and the corresponding consequences on our sense of morality, I think he has not yet properly thought through.

Unfortunately, the women and children always impose a politics ban. Those are then the ones who do not understand that discussing and debating is okay and does not automatically mean that one is arguing.

Well.

You can calculate for the uncle that an electric passenger car consumes around 15-20 kWh per 100 km, a X7 probably around 25 kWh. A comparable diesel, however, consumes 5 liters per 100 km in the most economical operation, and around 7 liters for the X7. One liter of diesel contains roughly 10 kWh, which corresponds to a demand of 50-70 kWh per 100 km.

How they want to make progress with E-Fuels there. E-Fuels will prevail where there is no alternative. So as aircraft fuel or in the military. It's hard to equip a Leopard 2 with a battery. And usually, there won't be a charging station in the position at the edge of the forest.

In the passenger car sector, these are wishful dreams of eternal nostalgics.

You can calculate for the uncle that an electric car consumes about 15-20 kWh per 100 km, an X7 probably 25 kWh. A comparable diesel, on the other hand, consumes already 5 liters in the most economical operation, with the X7 rather 7 liters per 100 km. One liter of diesel contains around 10 kWh, which corresponds to a demand of 50-70 kWh per 100 km.

How one wants to make progress with e-fuels there. E-fuels will establish themselves where there is no alternative. So as airplane fuel or in the military. You can hardly equip a Leopard 2 with a battery. And at a position at the edge of the forest, you usually won’t find a charging station either.

In the car sector, these are wishful dreams of the perpetually outdated.

You can calculate whatever you want for him. "How long am I supposed to stand at the rest stop on the way to vacation to charge the car?" comes next ;)

And exactly these perpetually outdated people will eventually be caught up by this heating issue as well. First sit it out and it’s all nonsense anyway. Only to realize in the end, probably just when the subsidies run out: Well, maybe it wasn’t so smart after all. I should have ... five years ago.

Before the big outcry starts again: No, the 80-year-old grandma in her 250 sq m house built with her own hands is not meant. But when it comes to the next generation, you should already consider and factor in when buying that there might be a need for action regarding heating ;)