I indeed also see it that we are absolutely dependent on gas. Specifically on Russian gas. Firstly because of the supply volume and secondly because of the price. A gas embargo would plunge us into a deep recession and ruin essential economic sectors. That would have massive effects on all parts of society. Therefore, I do not think this step will be taken.
It is equally true that Russia has been preparing the current situation for years. One can clearly see how methodically the sanctions are being handled. Russia has strong gold reserves, is not in debt, and can withstand the sanctions for years. With China on its side, they still have access to essential goods. Because no western nation will want to stop trading with China. This is evident now from the "lockdown" of Chinese ports. Additionally, China is the main creditor of the USA after the FED.
The plan of the German government to impose embargoes only if they can also be withstood for years is therefore exactly right.
However, I disagree with the opinion that Russia can export to China etc. without losses. Perhaps oil, but rather not gas. The infrastructure for that is lacking. Additionally, in that case China will call the shots and ruthlessly dictate prices and conditions.
Whether we like it or not, inflation will continue to soar. Various goods will also remain scarce. An interest rate hike by the ECB cannot be too radical either, as that would massively endanger the refinancing of many companies and states. Over the past years, politics has not only made itself dependent but has also taken away the economic tools to respond to real crises.
I am far from doomsday scenarios, but I do think that in terms of prosperity things will go downhill in the coming years. If it doesn’t happen, great. If it does, one should be prepared.