Construction costs are currently skyrocketing

So yes, in my opinion, in the coming years some people will no longer be able to build a house who would have managed it under similar circumstances in the past few years... the question is only from which perspective you look at it. The next few years might see some exceptions (that's why there will still be enough who can afford it), but maybe the last few years were also an exception, just in the other direction...

That’s exactly right. Building a house is a luxury that has become affordable for many in times of low interest rates. Even a construction loan in the early 2000s of 300-400k with a repayment of only 1% and 5% interest would have had a rate that would still shock some people today. In addition: since then, the average gross income has increased by more than 60%…

In times of rising minimum wages, increasing material and energy costs, and a shortage (and increasing decline) of craftsmen, I would not bet that building will become cheaper. It might only become "calculable" again, but not at the prices some wish for.

Since I got the benefit of a condominium at the beginning of 2012. The interest rate was already at 2.68%! Only with the difference that I was able to negotiate with the seller back then. In the same area, I could have even afforded a used detached house on my own.

Your example is extremely poor. 2012 was a golden time for property buyers. The aftermath of the real estate crisis was still clearly felt, and property prices were at a noticeable low. At the same time, the low interest rate phase began (yes, 2.x% is also low!). Low property prices met low interest rates.

The comparisons are not flawed at all. What’s not acceptable is saying "back then I was just a student or earned very little." You can always justify it like that. My comparison shows that with a decent income 10 years ago, despite 2-3% interest rates, you could comfortably afford to buy a condominium or single-family house. Maybe you weren’t that far yet back then, because you had no equity or were still a student or ... but purely in terms of opportunities, those were different times.

I didn’t say they are flawed, only that they are difficult. And selective. As I already said. Falling interest rates. You talk about 2012 and I’m talking about 2010-2011. In between there were 1.5 - 2%. You can believe me or not. In 2007 we were even over 5%. Just because you have an example from one year now doesn’t make it representative for the last 10 years. As I already said... the interest rate fell (in your example to 2-3% interest) but prices in real estate and construction costs did not increase by 50% in the 1-2 years when interest rates dropped nearly 50%. Prices rise more slowly than interest rates fall... and when interest rates turn again, as currently, it doesn’t mean that prices immediately drop again. In addition, other special effects occur, such as material or delivery bottlenecks. But you shouldn’t imagine price developments like stop and go. Construction projects from groundwork to move-in easily take 2-3 years. A big tanker needs a few kilometers to turn and head in the other direction.

And no, I am not comparing student-level incomes with my current salary. I was already over 30 ten years ago and earned quite well. It was only about the fact that in 2010, with 4% interest and 2% repayment (which is not a high repayment rate), you had to pay a rate of 1500 EUR for a 300k loan. And in 2010, 1,500 EUR was still somewhat more in relation to the salary than in 2022.

Be glad that you financed in 2012. You were one of the first to experience exactly this effect that has now lasted 10 years.

Your example is terribly bad. 2012 was a golden time for real estate buyers. The aftermath of the real estate crisis was still clearly noticeable, the property prices were at a significant low. At the same time, the low interest rate phase began (yes, 2.x% is also low!). Low property prices met low interest rates.

Oops. Okay. Now excuses are being sought as to why my example is bad in reality. I could bring examples from before and after as well. Everything went easy and smoothly, even with 3.x% nominal interest rates. Only in the last 3-4 years has it gotten out of hand. In 2018, we tried multiple times to buy, and that’s when the whole crap started. Attractive single-family homes in good locations were only overbid. Real estate agents with zero knowledge positioned themselves on the plots and looked where they could get the most on top for themselves.
Want more examples from reality? Relatives and friends. Financing at 4%, for that the house price was at 2xxx euros. Someone else: three-story Bauhaus with rooftop terrace. 4%, for 4xxx euros. Need more? In 2019 we struck again—a townhouse and therefore not yet in the focus of the bidding market. 1.96% and just over 20 annual net cold rents. Even more examples: building and buying have worked without problems since at least 2010. There were times with 6% interest rates and that wasn’t easy either. Check. But from 2010 until at least 2018, buying and building real estate was really easy. Due to all the KfW subsidies, the hype was maintained until the end of 2021.

I just came from the construction site and a buddy who is doing the house water connection said that his company (he is an employee there) even moved the trash bins out of the hall now because they stocked up on as much material as possible.

At the moment, there is full panic about supply shortages again/still at their company.

I just want to say that buying and building since 2010 has been quite easy even with normal incomes. Since 2019, however, it has been going relentlessly into a very difficult region for average earners without a large inheritance ([Eigenkapital]). Now, with the increased interest rates, it has become absurd. The subsidies have kept the machine running. I am curious to see what it will look like in 2 or 3 years.

The faster the interest rates rise now, the more interesting the part of [Anschlussfinanzierung] of the financings from 2013 and 2014 will become. There are certainly enough people who have zero knowledge about the topic of [Forwarddarlehen].