Construction costs are currently skyrocketing

(...)
I would spontaneously tend to a one-time payment, but the percentage increase probably brings more, right?

You get the percentage increase every year from that point on, the prices also remain permanently high and are unlikely to drop significantly in 2024.
In addition, there is the compound interest effect. The next increase is then a percentage based on your higher income.

Yes, the production is supposed to pay for it...

I work in a chemical company.
2% each year is simply not feasible.

Many things are only considered and then poorly implemented.

We have now received
April to October 22 1400€ one-time payment fully taxed.
+ 5% night bonus

October to December nothing

January 23 3.25% and 1500€ tax-free social security-free
January 24 3.25% and 1500€ tax/social security-free
Runs until June 24.

So AI is kind of a private hobbyhorse of mine, and I read quite a bit about it. I'm just wondering which time frame you imagine as "faster than many believe ;)." Also, I would find it interesting to define "intelligence" (there are various forms of intelligence, after all). At least in the literature I read, there is no sign of "real" AI in the foreseeable future, because then, good night humanity :-(

That surprises me, because I consider two machines that talk to each other and develop their own, more efficient language all by themselves to be extraordinarily intelligent. When was that again? 2017 at Facebook?

And then there was the guy who did an experiment with his microwave, which in the end wanted to lock him in and grill him.

It basically only fails due to limited computing power. Once that is solved by quantum computers, nothing will stand in the way of AI.

I don't believe it will be that far off until the end of the century. Maybe 2050.

That surprises me, because I consider 2 machines that communicate with each other and develop their own, more efficient language entirely on their own to be extraordinarily intelligent. When was that again? 2017 at Facebook?

And then there was the guy who did an experiment with his microwave, which in the end wanted to let him in and grill him.

It basically only fails due to limited computing power. Once quantum computers have solved that, nothing will stand in the way of AI.

I don’t believe it will happen only by the end of the century. Maybe 2050.

I believe I know quite well the current limits of machines. But I was also asking about the (your) definition of intelligence. A well-made “expert system” already convincingly pretends to the user, as you said, that there is a real human being on the other end of the line. For example, in the area of automatically generated texts (newspaper, lyrics, etc.) atrocious things are currently happening in my opinion. Not everyone can use that yet (fortunately). But I actually mean the point in time when “artificial intelligences develop their own consciousness.” And many scientists and other experts largely agree that this will never happen (unfortunately I couldn’t find the definition of “never” in this context). Maybe I’m just reading the wrong books and magazines? But in 30 years I personally consider that impossible. I have now been working in IT for over 35 years. If I extrapolate the development over this period, I can’t help but put in at least 200 to 300 years for that.

Most likely I will no longer be able to verify that... too bad? If you turn out to be right, I might have the bad luck to experience it...

The limitations of AI can be seen quite quickly with these newfangled AI art generators. At first glance, they are impressive, but basically, they can do nothing more than copy and mix together. Sometimes they produce quite nice results, but basically, this is not a creative process, it is plagiarism combined with big data. Without proper data to "learn" from, the generators can do nothing. And that data is man-made.

I am also skeptical about the consciousness thing. We don’t even really know what consciousness is in humans, or how it works. We can do brain surgery, but the percentage of the human brain that we truly understand is surprisingly low. I once saw a documentary with a brain surgeon from the Berlin Charité, it was very interesting. He basically said that we only know that we know nothing.

I believe I know quite well the current limits of machines. But I also asked for the (your) definition of intelligence. A well-made "expert system" already convincingly simulates to the user, as you said, the existence of a real human at the other end of the line. For example, in the area of automatically generated texts (newspapers, lyrics, etc.) currently atrocious things are happening, in my opinion. Not everyone can use it yet (fortunately). But I actually mean the point at which "artificial intelligences develop their own consciousness." And many scientists and other experts largely agree that this will never happen (unfortunately, I could not find the definition of "never" in this context). Maybe I'm just reading the wrong books and magazines? But in 30 years I personally consider it impossible. I have been working in IT myself for over 35 years. If I extrapolate the development over this period, I cannot avoid having to assume at least 200-300 years for that.

Most likely, I will not be able to verify this anymore... a pity? If you turn out to be right, I might unfortunately have the bad luck to witness it...

You see. I am always skeptical whenever anyone says that will never happen. If you look at it… 150 years ago people thought the human body would explode if it moved at 25 km/h in a train. People also thought it was impossible to fly. For a long time, it was believed that atoms were built like dough with raisins. People thought the smallest particles were nucleons, people thought structural widths in the single-digit nm range were not achievable…

If I think back 30 years, phones still had cables and stood in the hallway.

The problem is you extrapolate linearly. But technological progress does not work that way; it runs exponentially in leaps.

If I were to extrapolate linearly from 1900 to today, we might have only just reached the jet engine yesterday.

Just my opinion, no matter what the experts say.

PS: By the way, if 2 machines are able to develop their own efficient language… already 5 years ago and that surprised all researchers. Then I consider the statement "machines will NEVER be able to attain consciousness" to be quite bold. Essentially, this development was already a primitive consciousness, an autonomous action of machines that had not been taught to them before.