Construction costs are currently skyrocketing

I do not assume that nothing will come out of the gas pipeline anymore. The storage facilities are almost sufficient for the winter even without Russian gas. Accordingly, they will try to fill them up beforehand.

Wait a moment, young man! Objection. The storage facilities are only sufficient for the winter if they are almost full AND if the pipelines are filled to nearly 100%. The storage facilities cover about 25% of the annual demand and primarily serve to cover seasonal additional demand (as well as to temporarily compensate for maintenance work in the pipeline network). Since the pipelines from Russia are already running at only 40% capacity and if (!) this is also assumed for winter operation, it will not be enough by any means. Currently, with Russia accounting for around 50% of the supply, there is already a 30% shortfall of the average total import volume, so filling the storage facilities will hardly advance any further. If they remain at 50%, then half of the storage capacity plus 30% of the imports will be missing. This would sum up to around 40% of the gas flows otherwise needed in winter. So under these assumptions, only 60% would be available in winter. And in case of doubt, make a few energy-intensive companies (cement plants, etc.) find the shutdown appealing. With the high prices, many people will discover their frugality anyway. I rather don’t believe that we will start sawing construction timber. With a 40% deficit, it would not be just a "few energy-intensive companies"– the entire German industry consumes 37% of the total gas volume. The entire German industry would therefore be out of the picture. By the way, about another 12% goes to power supply itself – and what many do not consider is that a lot of district heating for households is also linked to this...

You assume that gas consumption remains constant. But it will not. Several operations have already been shut down, although not only because of gas. Bricks, tiles, etc. For electricity generation, we are now using more coal again. At first glance, it doesn't seem like much, but 5 percentage points can make quite a difference and so far it seems to be working quite well. That's why there are also the Russian sabotage maneuvers now. In addition, there is an as yet unknown amount of LNG. In industry, there is often the option to throttle back instead of shutting down completely. In some areas, we will experience reduced demand anyway due to higher prices, and thus reduced industrial production.

You assume that gas consumption remains constant. But it will not.

And you assume that gas imports now remain constant. They will not. Gazprom can publicly view the storage and consumption data here in real time and finely adjust, exactly as the big boss in the Kremlin wants. Here is a report from yesterday: Gas flows via Nord Stream decrease today according to Bloomberg data by a further 4% to 672 GWh per day. This means a decline of nearly 30% compared to the previous week and more than 60% since the beginning of the month. "We are now using more coal for power generation again" OK, now. But in winter? Currently, we have on average over the past weeks about 5.5 GW electric from gas. And these gas-powered plants are largely operated for process energy in the chemical industry as well as in plants that supply cities with district heating via combined heat and power, so they can only be substituted with difficulty. Oh yes, in December, by the way, we are shutting down as much nuclear power as these 5.5 GW gas currently generate... Actually, the coal-fired power plants that are now taking over for the gas as a replacement for exactly these nuclear power plants should be there. hm....

While world market prices for wood are plummeting, there is no sign of this in Germany. Producer prices for wood continue to rise steeply. And this across the board. As the latest survey by the Federal Statistical Office shows, spruce wood cost just over 50% more in April than in the previous year. Across all types of wood, the price increase was just under 35 percent.

Regionally, record prices for firewood of partly more than 100 €/RMM are also reported. It is to be expected that energy prices will remain high. Consumers are therefore trying to prepare for outages or possible rationing of gas and district heating by purchasing firewood.

fyi

We are currently having our terrace roof and intermediate roof built. Yesterday, we ordered the glass. 8mm and just under 69sqm at 70€/sqm.

Suitable for the discussion about gas:


Actually, I know that alarms are valid immediately, but until the week after next there is no reason for concern ;)