Construction costs are currently skyrocketing

If even the big players are now pulling the emergency brake, the average citizen should also better keep their hands off it. Anyone starting a new build now needs good nerves and a 30% reserve. Ironically, however, this has something good for existing properties. If new builds crash spectacularly, then the prices of all existing houses (whether 4 or 40 years old) will continue to rise. Because then a still small supply meets the buyers, who then renovate a house instead of building one themselves. Because hardly anyone from the middle class will be able to afford a new build so quickly. I’m saying it: existing properties and new builds are closely interconnected. If the price goes up on one side, it rises on the other half as well. Because what else does a collapsing new build lead to? Increasing rental prices, because hardly anyone can afford to build anymore. And Vonovia just can’t get the 20€ per square meter in every village. Even 12€ would be sporty from my point of view.

On the other hand ... the prices for unsanierte 70er Jahre Häuschen are still beyond good and evil. However, they still seem to make up the majority of the offers.

Yes, the prices will still go down by -20%. But that is still more expensive. Because the prices are still at a pre-Corona level from 2019. And paying these prices with high interest rates is already madness. But what else can one do? Sometimes I also cannot understand the municipalities. For years there have been discussions about the expansion of a construction area, which is now supposed to start in the middle of next year. Much too late for almost everyone. At these prices. And even though construction was supposed to start there already 3 years ago. At such a pace, it is no wonder that existing properties remain expensive.

Because hardly anyone from the middle class will be able to afford a new build that quickly.

I think that's quite exaggerated. There will rather be a change in thinking: smaller, less fancy stuff, more own effort.

But what other choice do you have?

Rent? With prices of 40 annual rents and current interest rates, ownership is an incredible luxury. Especially with an older property that constantly needs maintenance.

I think that is greatly exaggerated. Rather, a change in thinking will take place: smaller, less fancy stuff, more personal effort.

I doubt that. We had on a few pages ago the calculation with the shell construction of Massa Haus. 300k with a lot of personal effort and simple standards. Plus land, various incidental construction costs, kitchen and you quickly get over 400k. 20% equity (=80k+) then means a loan of 320k or more. You end up with a payment from 1500€ upwards. For a house in the lowest price range and relatively cheap land.

Exactly. If you calculate at least €350,000 for the house and €100,000 for the plot + €50,000 incidental costs, you quickly reach €500,000. At this interest rate, only a few of the upper class can afford that. Because a monthly payment of €2,000 or more is not possible for the majority with the average income. And that is a 130 m2 house without a basement/garage 30-50 km away from the nearest big city, as you mentioned.