Construction costs are currently skyrocketing

  • Erstellt am 2021-04-23 10:46:58

ypg

2022-04-06 20:55:34
  • #1

What do you think or know is wrong? I'm not very familiar with this banking stuff.
Repayment 02/23. Considered a new financing since 2 KfW loans are still being paid off.
 

TmMike_2

2022-04-06 20:57:28
  • #2
The further into the future, the higher the forward premium. That's probably what he meant. You're basically buying protection. Currently probably the right decision, but no one has a crystal ball.
 

motorradsilke

2022-04-06 21:00:21
  • #3
Do you think that despite low interest rates, the rates will still go higher? I rather suspect that due to rising prices, demand will decrease and the interest rates will go down again or at least not go up further.
 

Gecko1927

2022-04-06 21:16:42
  • #4


As far as I know, interest rates do not rise/fall with demand. Demand certainly has not dropped significantly in recent weeks.
The articles I have seen online so far all predict interest rates to rise further. But I haven’t quite understood why yet.

In my opinion, however, the increased interest rates should lead to lower construction activity and thus lower demand. An apartment as an investment with 30% equity simply isn’t profitable anymore beyond a certain interest rate.
In the long term, building costs should also decrease again, but the war and the disrupted supply chains that existed even before the war still play a role here.

Currently, we have rising interest rates, extremely rising raw material prices, a chronic shortage of skilled craftsmen, and a government that is restructuring the funding program (and probably does not want to promote single-family houses at all in the long term).
It is a conceivable difficult situation.

Apartments, for example in Munich, were already "extremely" expensive 15 to 20 years ago. Today, one would be happy about a paid-off apartment in Munich, which is certainly worth double to triple.
Unfortunately, the current situation can only be properly assessed in the future.
 

TmMike_2

2022-04-06 21:20:38
  • #5

That can happen in the medium term, construction materials could also become cheaper. But probably no one really knows. I don't see fixed interest rates under 1% for 10 years in the next 24 months.
 

bowbow91

2022-04-06 21:24:27
  • #6


Interest rates have not only been raised due to increased demand. Currently, the drivers are the increased yields on government bonds and higher equity requirements due to regulatory demands.

A forecast on how things will proceed is like playing the lottery.
 

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