Do you think that despite the low base interest rate, the interest rates will still go higher?
I rather suspect that due to rising prices the demand will decrease and the interest rates will go down again or at least not go up further.
As far as I know, interest rates do not rise/fall with demand. Demand certainly has not dropped significantly in recent weeks.
The articles I have seen online so far all predict interest rates to rise further. But I haven’t quite understood why yet.
In my opinion, however, the increased interest rates should lead to lower construction activity and thus lower demand. An apartment as an investment with 30% equity simply isn’t profitable anymore beyond a certain interest rate.
In the long term, building costs should also decrease again, but the war and the disrupted supply chains that existed even before the war still play a role here.
Currently, we have rising interest rates, extremely rising raw material prices, a chronic shortage of skilled craftsmen, and a government that is restructuring the funding program (and probably does not want to promote single-family houses at all in the long term).
It is a conceivable difficult situation.
Apartments, for example in Munich, were already "extremely" expensive 15 to 20 years ago. Today, one would be happy about a paid-off apartment in Munich, which is certainly worth double to triple.
Unfortunately, the current situation can only be properly assessed in the future.