Construction costs are currently skyrocketing

We also had, for example, an offer for balconies and stairs from June 2020. And of course now the concern that if implementation takes place in 1-2 months, it will become expensive due to the steel price increase, etc. But no, asked again specifically. The price remains! Only subsequent changes / additional costs for a different covering (Balkodur) and glass instead of Trespa will be charged. Although the glass is almost the same price as TRESPA (only €2 more per m²).

According to a recent article in the Handwerksblatt, the first companies are going into short-time work! Despite full order books!!! Crazy world.

This morning on our radio: Spruce is currently being shipped to China and the USA for 75€, because the domestic sawmills only want to pay a maximum of 50€. Last year, spruce was still sold for 90€ on the domestic market. Someone should try to understand that...

I have a small forest at home myself. And for what feels like an eternity, the forest owner is practically giving away his wood... Allegedly, there is too much wood on the market because of bark beetles. Since the LRA sets deadlines for the removal of beetle-infested wood, sometimes you have no choice but to conduct the harvest mechanically. For the small forester, this is a break-even... or even a loss. But no, even in the timber trade, this "bark beetle wood" is not cheaper... (it should actually be, in reverse logic)... My neighbor recently had to "sell" for 28 euros (by now bark beetle wood is at 58 euros)

The prices for spruce are still too low for us small foresters. We ourselves also keep the wood at home (still), or rather prefer to chip it for the wood chip heating rather than sell it.

In my opinion, this "scarcity" is due to speculators... but I don't really know the big picture that well either...

Speaking of sawmills: ours no longer buys anything. They only cut "external wood." And at the big one a few kilometers away, I was told they go straight from the saw to the container, on to the port, and there it’s sold to the highest bidder (!).

Just saw it by chance: The topic has now reached [die Blöd]. It can't be long before the first politicians pick up on it...

Just saw it by chance: The topic has now reached [Blöd]. It can't be long until the first politicians pick it up...

Why should they do that? Short-time work benefits and suspension of insolvencies have already been postponed as far as possible beyond the election period. And the raw materials crisis is just beginning. How was it again? No more foil for frozen food? The construction industry with wood is only a small part of the affected supply chains. One probably just hopes that the inflation figures are not reported as significantly above the magic 2% too quickly...

Living in a single-family house will become a privilege of the upper middle class in the medium term. It’s as simple as that.

Whoever can should make sure to build/buy now. Waiting never means becoming a single-family homeowner.

Those who wait for the bubble can wait for a very, very long time.

25 years ago, nobody wanted real estate,... construction prices were at rock bottom and single-family houses were sold like junk.... condominiums were auctioned off compulsorily at 8% of their market value... that was the reality a "few" years ago.... the "now or never" mentality feels like a self-fulfilling prophecy,... I don’t see it as absolutely necessary to buy at any price now..... when I think about what my house cost me, it’s really intense and I had pretty good conditions and still paid significantly less than what is always quoted here as construction costs. The tight financing will become a problem for many when the economy slows down..... despite all the emotion connected with such a "dream of owning a house," you have to consider the whole thing commercially as well. An owner-occupied house is also a considerable concentration risk and less suitable as retirement provision than many think.

In the end, everything is a crystal ball.
I've written this several times elsewhere. I don't see a bubble. It may well be that these crazy price increases will stop or maybe even cool down a bit.
I don't see a significant correction. For various reasons.
I don't see a major departure from the trend of dealing with spaces more "sustainably." Therefore, the scarcity of plots will not suddenly improve. Elsewhere, we are discussing bans on new single-family houses. A reduction in supply has rarely led to falling prices so far.
Economic cycle? In the short term, I don't see a cooling, rather the opposite. Medium and long term. Sure, it happens from time to time. But that doesn't make it a bubble.
And one must never forget one thing: there is a lot of money out there. We are only at the beginning of the inheritance generation. There will always be parents and grandparents who have quite a bit to inherit. Several single-family houses can still be built with that.