The Russian currently thinks that one could take back Alaska and march through Poland all the way to Berlin. They want to provoke both sides deliberately. From my point of view, this will not bring peace and will escalate further. The situation was similar in 1937. Hitler had conquered Czechoslovakia and then it was quiet for a while until things got serious.
I find your analysis strange. Does this mean, conversely, that if someone attacked you, beat you up, possibly raped you, and took over your house, you would go to them and ask them to stay, but please don’t take your car? It would be exactly the opposite case. If NATO did not react and tolerated it, the Russian would already have taken Ukraine and Moldova.