Construction costs are currently skyrocketing

Well, but there has also been an increase in value of real estate in the new construction sector (A, B) by over 50% since 2018. That more than compensates for it.

The question is, who benefits from this and can it really be realized? The increase is mainly beneficial for people who have already owned their property for a longer time. Those who only started building in 2021 have completely different figures. And now selling at new construction price +X% will also be difficult. Every potential buyer has to manage the interest rate first, and those who can afford it currently have good opportunities to build new themselves right away.

I see it differently... that's purely a paper profit. Looks good, but doesn't bring anything at all...

It's basically no different with stocks, precious metals, or savings bonds. With 8% inflation, I'm currently happier with 3% interest and a newly built, energy-efficient house.

Savings bonds, etc. are tradable at any time, real estate not necessarily. Besides... if I were to sell now, what would I do with the money? 4% to 8%! But that's not the topic here either, rather quite off-topic ;)

Do you still remember when roof tiles were hardly available last year? Now the warehouses are so full that the manufacturers have to shut down:

“All six roof tile factories are at a standstill, we shut down the last one at the end of July,” said a spokeswoman for the Swabian manufacturer Creaton.

The Austrian Wienerberger, the only large company in the medium-sized sector, has temporarily closed eight of its seventeen building material factories in Germany and applied for short-time work for 500 employees, according to its own information.

“We are currently experiencing a standstill that we did not consider possible a year ago,” writes managing director Jürgen Habenbacher. BMI, the parent company of the Oberursel Braas Group, speaks of “occasional short-time work” upon request; however, they are trying to use the summer to maintain the tunnel kilns, said a spokeswoman.

According to internal bank sources, lending for construction projects has collapsed by 95 percent. It is therefore not surprising that entire factories of manufacturers of bricks and Poroton stones are being shut down.

At some point, however, we will reach a point where it is questionable whether these manufacturers will survive. It is doubtful that construction activity will quickly and fully pick up again.

The ECB's long-standing zero interest rate policy will prove to be a serious mistake. The bubble of cheap money is now bursting with a big bang. Completely predictable, by the way. We will now experience a very short deflationary phase with falling asset prices. If the ECB then succumbs once again to the political pressure for interest rate cuts, inflation will no longer be containable and we will then witness the end of the euro. Short and painless.

By the way, it feels quite good when everything gets a bit grounded again.

With roof tile manufacturers, I estimate that business will improve again once it is clear which energy renovations are required and supported as demanded. Then some old houses will have to have insulation added to the roofs anyway, and then many will probably also start immediately adding new tiles when that is actually overdue anyway.