Construction costs are currently skyrocketing

I agree. The export surpluses are basically almost one-to-one the hardly disguised transfers of the ECB into the public financing of the southern countries. The ECB has recently been buying almost exclusively government bonds of the poorly fiscally managed southern countries. Simply put, our export surplus finances the retirement at 60(?) in France, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. Somewhat very condensed at a pub level, but basically the euro system is increasingly running like this.

Sorry, but this is not condensed at a pub level, but factually incorrect. The surplus existed in small amounts already during the D-Mark era. An export surplus per se means that the unit labor costs of the surplus country develop weaker measured in dollars than in other countries. Such a thing should actually lead to appreciations. The Bundesbank always resisted this for a long time during the D-Mark era before it happened. With the euro, nothing happens anymore. This has nothing to do with transfers. And also not with the purchase of government bonds.

The transfers to the southern states by the ECB do not disappear just because you deny them. And they prevent the appreciation pressure that the DM used to have.

A significant weakness of the metric export surplus is also that vacation expenses of German tourists abroad are not included. Adjusted for tourism, the surplus is significantly lower. Nevertheless, Germany should rather consume the surplus itself in the form of imports and vacations instead of shifting it through the ECB without expected repayment into the state budgets of the South.

??

I did not deny anything. I explained that the mechanism is not as you described it. Not even condensed to some simplified level.

The ECB does not influence wage formation in Germany, and if you don’t have your own currency, then wages directly determine labor costs calculated in international currency. Or – to simplify as well: your own fault. No one forces us to generate these surpluses. We could also use the money domestically by giving people what they are deprived of by the non-occurring appreciation.

So many lobbies are against that it does not happen. None of these lobbies have anything to do with the ECB. Fiscal policy remains a matter for the countries, even in the Eurozone.

You can gladly refer to the current account surplus, which includes tourists’ expenditures. That is also gigantic – for decades now, almost. So that argument doesn’t hold; the numbers don’t support it.

Please don’t sell barroom slogans as mere simplifications when they are factually wrong. Einstein’s insight applies: “Make things as simple as possible. But not simpler.”

Just checked, the 10-year swap has dropped significantly today to 2.22%. That means that the interest rate is starting to decline. Whether this is a trend cannot be said at the moment. I just observe it every day.

Please stop with these daily status reports. First, you are sure that the interest rate is starting to decline. In the next sentence, you express doubts about a possible trend. Simply keep your feet still for a while.

Fiscal policy is still a matter for individual countries, even in the Eurozone.

Not when the ECB buys unlimited Southern European bonds and artificially lowers interest rates. On top of that, the extremely high Target balances. This is essentially fiscal policy through the central bank, and thus a clear breach of its mandate. But the motto is "whatever it takes." Of course, the Euro is a flawed construct, as the necessary convergence processes across countries do not take place and the ECB just prints away the problems with its money press. And Germany only has itself to blame; it should incur much more public debt and significantly increase wages and consumption to restore balance. Instead, it chooses indirect money transfers to the South in dizzying amounts. And the South goes bankrupt immediately if these transfers are even slightly reduced. This was seen at the recent emergency meeting of the ECB Council. And yes, this discussion is absolutely on topic here. Because the ECB significantly influences construction prices with bond purchases and interest rates.

Please stop with these daily water level reports. First, you are sure that the interest rate is starting to fall. In the next sentence, you have doubts about a possible trend. Just keep your feet still for a while.

Did you not understand the purpose of the forum? This is about exchanging opinions. I present mine and others present theirs, which creates a discussion. Otherwise, if you have nothing to contribute to the topic, then simply do not write anything and avoid the topic.