Construction costs are currently skyrocketing

Tell me, the probability is higher that the project will be successful if the company focuses precisely on the construction-relevant issues. The price-performance ratio is also probably better if a significant part of the budget is not spent on Nelson.
But unfortunately, there is no guarantee that the construction services will be good.
It also depends on the craftsmen used, whom the general contractor does not regularly get to choose among his subs.

That depends. With the big players, I agree with you. But our general contractor has been working with small regional craft businesses for over 20 years. So you usually have the same craftsmen on site, and thus the quality is roughly consistent.

I unfortunately see it similarly. It is possible that energy becomes cheaper again and producer prices in construction decrease. Maybe there is 20% potential and 5-8% will be passed on. But before that, we had price increases of 30, 40, 50%. If the Poroton brick now costs twice as much, a small setback doesn't help much. House construction in EL for 1300€/m2 like in 2020 is history.

I am also somewhat skeptical regarding falling material prices. The cost increases are justified by two factors: excessive demand and rising costs (e.g. energy). The high demand disappears, but the high production costs remain, and materials management will not produce at a loss (or even with a significantly reduced margin). When demand decreases, production capacities will more likely be adjusted. Prices will certainly drop somewhat and availability will improve, but we will certainly not return to the prices of 2020.

As long as there are simple ways to put the workforce on short-time work – the simplified access currently applies until 06/30/2022 – and have that subsidized, it will probably work like that. Scaling down production capacities also means at the same time – assuming unchanged sales prices – generating less revenue. Whether that is worthwhile then has to be calculated cleverly.

Raw material prices have slightly decreased in recent weeks, with the exception of wood, which has fallen sharply. A lot depends on global political developments. With falling gas prices, the situation can relax very quickly, and vice versa, of course, the opposite.

We will not fall back to the prices of 2020. However, it is good if homebuilding companies / general contractors can no longer raise prices arbitrarily on a weekly basis and now have to make an effort for the customers again.

Commodity prices have slightly decreased in recent weeks, with the exception of wood, which has dropped significantly. Much depends on geopolitical developments. With falling gas prices, the situation could also quickly ease further, but of course the opposite is also true.

However, I am not exactly optimistic about this. The fundamentals for a steep drop in gas prices are missing. If we now want to replace Russian pipeline gas from old contracts with LNG at new contract prices, this certainly will not lead to cheaper prices. Apart from all the LNG infrastructure that is now being quickly and expensively built up, which according to plan should be obsolete again in 2-3 decades. This is not cheap either. In addition, we currently have a certain bloc formation that will certainly affect other commodities besides just oil and gas at some point. I do not currently believe in a political solution. There is no solution acceptable to both sides, and the war is not clearly decided enough for one side to accept a solution with loss of face. We will have to wait a while longer.

There are no fundamentals for a sharply falling gas price.

Supply and demand. Looking at LNG alone is not enough; it is connected to a much broader geopolitical context. It can swing in both directions again.

There have also been oil contracts with negative prices, where you actually got paid to take physical delivery. Probably nobody thought that would happen either.

...so let's see where the pendulum swings.

Supply and Demand

The demand for gas is very inelastic in the short to medium term. I cannot predict what will happen in 20 years, but for the next 2-3 years I don't see any significant reduction unless we have to ration gas and forcibly shut down large consumers. And in that case, there will be disruptions in the downstream supply chains.
The production of gas is also technically inelastic. Once a well is drilled, the gas has to be extracted. But if the goal is to spite the political opponent, flaring or venting into the atmosphere are also acceptable alternatives to selling it.

There have also been oil contracts with negative prices, where you actually got paid for taking physical delivery. Nobody would have thought that possible.

...so let’s see where the pendulum swings.

That was a rare combination of a massive collapse in demand, a price war, and the belief that the price could not fall below zero ;)
This will not happen again in the foreseeable future and the subsequent production cuts are still having an effect today; as far as I know, less oil is still being produced than was done at the beginning of 2020 before Corona. Looking back, the event has rather strengthened the OPEC since it made clear to every member that a cartel only works if everyone pulls together.