Construction costs are currently skyrocketing

Relatively speaking, the general contractor will experience similar price increases for concrete. Even their best customer cannot be sold the goods without a margin or below cost price.

Here it becomes clear who acted first: the concrete suppliers, of which there are not many, have had the cartel office on their backs for a long time. Or why does lightweight concrete in northern Germany cost almost the same as in the south.

That can continue, yes. However, price adjustments at the bakery or supermarket do not reflect producer prices 1 to 1. Because the baker cannot simply make his bread rolls 50% more expensive, then no one would buy them anymore. In this respect, falling producer prices initially mean that the losses of the bakers decrease and not the prices for bread rolls. Energy costs also remain high and various unions have enforced wage increases in the range of 8% over 2 years, plus one-time payments equivalent to one month's salary. That means prices rise there in 2023/24, simply because wages are rising. With all due respect, I do not see much substance in your assumptions. Which also corresponds with the fact that no expert in this field expects deflation for 2023/24. On the contrary, in 2023 it will be 7% again.

The *hihi* behind "deflation" was there intentionally. What I was concerned with was something completely different: that the official inflation figures as a year-on-year comparison to the same month cannot represent the dynamics. For that, one has to compare months with previous months. You won’t find that anywhere in the press, but have to get it yourself from Destatis. The fact is that producer prices are currently falling. Whether and how this is reflected in the inflation figures I don’t know. But I do know that the "experts" are regularly wrong, even more often than a random distribution would justify.

Well, at 1.7) they are very generous ;)

Huh? That can be easily calculated... you just have to understand what the inflation is related to.

I also don't know where 4% falling producer prices would significantly curb inflation. Producer prices have climbed by 20, 30, 40% over the year.

And it continues merrily.
In mid-2023, wage increases of almost 5% will come from almost all unions. Energy remains expensive, gas remains scarce.
Many effects will only take effect in 2023... just because many small businesses had energy contracts that expire at the beginning of 2023. Then the price usually multiplies, etc.

You once threw something out there, yes. But that's just nonsense.

I also don’t know where a 4% drop in producer prices would significantly dampen inflation. Producer prices have climbed by 20, 30, 40% year on year.

Nov 21 - Nov 22 it was 28.2% according to the Federal Statistical Office, not 30% or 40%. It will also not be more 30% or 40%, but less than 28.2% if chand’s statement is correct. Why is it so important for you to portray the situation worse than it actually is?

And it goes on merrily.

The trend is currently positive. Which does not mean that the peak of inflation must be overcome, but the upward momentum has been broken for months.

In mid-2023, first of all, the wage increases of almost all unions of around 5% will come. Energy remains expensive, gas remains scarce.

The existing collective agreements refute your statements about 5% next summer. Energy remains expensive, yes, but currently (!) with a tendency to become cheaper. Gas was and has been at no time in 2022 scarce. The expectation that a shortage could occur caused the prices. It is people like you who preach doom and move the mood in that very direction.

Many effects will only hit through in 2023... partly because many small businesses had energy contracts that expire at the beginning of 2023. Then the price usually multiplies, etc.

You forget the gas price cap in your theory. Moreover, the gas price on the spot market (yes, I know) was below the pre-war level yesterday. Completely without Russia, thanks to full storage, low gas consumption, lots of wind energy, LNG deliveries, etc.

We only know extremes anymore, every topic is being pushed.. every shortage is being driven to the extreme.

Toilet paper..
Flour..
Ibuprofen.
Inverters for photovoltaics.
Travel.
House construction..

This comes from our constant excess of always wanting to have everything at any time.