I am primarily interested in the current construction prices and the situation of the construction companies. I think and believe that the effects of the enormous interest rate increase should be slowly arriving and that the order books for 2023 with single-family homes will be harder to fill. I would be very interested in reports of experience on this.
On the subject of everything was better in the past, it used to work with all sorts of interest rates, blah blah blah.
Interest rates have dropped extremely since 2012; back then, it was easy to finance for under 3%. Construction prices or purchase prices for condominiums, however, were significantly lower. If there is a bubble and if it should burst, it probably won’t happen today or tomorrow. *CRYSTAL BALL* The price pressure on existing properties is already noticeable. Here in the metropolitan area, existing properties have been offered well above their appraised values in recent months, and now prices are getting closer to the appraised values.
Now supported with real numbers.
a Financing mid-2012 at 2.68% for 10 years. Property value today factor 2.6.
b Financing early 2019 at 1.96% for 20 years (after which interest rates went down even further). Property value today factor 2.
Does anyone notice something? Property prices have risen exorbitantly in the last 3 years. Construction prices are elsewhere, and that is not just due to material prices! So it will take a few more years until the projects financed between 2018 and 2022 with tight budgets and 10-year fixed interest rates come into the situation of refinancing. Until then, I hope and believe that the single-family home market will come under considerable pressure and prices will normalize a bit more.