Construction costs are currently skyrocketing

However, one should not assume that the average earner is skilled enough in handiwork for something like this (no offense intended), but I do know people who can’t get a nail into the wall... they will also have to continue building (must)... And renovating old properties can, depending on the region, be almost a break-even business or maybe 50k cheaper... For me, though, the decision would clearly be for new construction... the smaller the difference between used/renovation and new construction, the shorter the list for me of things I am willing to put up with

I still remember when my old man drove 20 km with a tractor and trailer 20-25 years ago to pick up 120 m2 of paving stones (for free) and then laid them in our driveway.

Another example: I was recently at the hardware store for 10 m2 of roof sheathing for a shed/shelter and they wanted 300€. The salesperson said it absolutely had to be tongue-and-groove and who knows what else. In the end, I got the 10 m2 for free from the boss, but had to go to work twice with a trailer to load the stuff. Even if the wood might not be top quality and lasts only 15 instead of 20 years, it was free at first.

Sure, not everyone is skilled at handiwork and/or has the equipment, but almost everyone has a shovel and a pickaxe, wheelbarrow. Of course, you don’t have to dig the foundation pit with that, but hardly anyone wants to pave or lay curbstones themselves anymore.

What I ultimately want to say is that the mentality of those wanting to build must also change, and smaller steps must be taken.

In the past, building a house was a reward for the sacrifices you had to accept for it. And not a by-product you just hand over to a general contractor alongside home office. And the main personal effort consisted of finding suitable financing, even though you can also save a lot of money there.

And renovating old stock can, depending on the region, also be almost a break-even business or maybe 50k cheaper... But for me, the decision would be clear for new construction... the smaller the difference between used/renovation and new construction, the shorter the list for me of things I’m willing to put up with

That was exactly the reason in 2018/19 for my ex-husband and me that we decided to build after all. Thanks to the high prices for existing properties, the plot was almost balanced out by the lower ancillary purchase costs.

Contradicts itself in my eyes. On the one hand – an absolutely highly developed construction industry at maximum size with a dissolving backlog, and on the other hand a dramatic drop in demand with only a few remaining but very solvent customers. Hardly believable that the numerous margin cushions can be maintained there.

There will be a correction in the construction sector; some general contractors are already going bankrupt or have to close. That prices in new construction will not fall is the logical consequence of inflation. Furthermore, many craftsmen are missing. Prices for new construction will simply freeze or stagnate after the ECB interest rate hike. There will then be fewer general contractors, and much less construction will take place.

It will now be easier to find a plot of land and a general contractor where you do not have to wait a year for construction to start. The large prefab house providers will likely have to do something to attract customers because they simply are not coming anymore. So offer more for the price, for example including the plot of land. The stupid plot service will disappear. The clientele will change; they will be able to serve people with a household income of 5,500 and upwards. Everyone else will not be able to afford a rate >2,000.

Interest rates will probably remain at 4% and inflation at 3%.

All in all, no drama, just a normal cycle with lows and highs.

There will be a correction in the construction sector, some GCs are already going bankrupt or have to close. The fact that prices in new construction will not fall is the logical consequence of inflation. Besides, many craftsmen are missing. Prices for new construction will simply freeze or stagnate after the ECB interest rate increase. There will then be fewer GCs and much less construction.

It will now be easier to find a plot of land and a GC where you don't have to wait 1 year before construction starts. The big prefabricated house providers will probably have to do something to attract customers because they simply don't come anymore. So, offer more for the price, like including land for example. The stupid land service will disappear. The clientele will change; they will basically only be able to serve people with a household income of 5.5k and up. All others will not be able to afford a >2k installment.

Interest rates will probably stay at 4% and inflation at 3%.

All in all, no drama, just a normal cycle with lows and highs.

I'll write it again. (It was deleted anyway). Is that supposed to be the word of the month with a polished crystal ball?

some GCs are already going bankrupt or have to close.

Besides, many craftsmen are missing.

Doesn't really add up for me.

And no person, no forum member, and not even an “expert” currently knows where prices/interest rates are heading and how inflation will continue.

I'll write it again. (It was deleted). Is this supposed to be the word of the month with a polished crystal ball?

Doesn't really fit together for me.

And no one, no forum member, and not even any "expert" currently knows where prices / interest rates are heading and how inflation will develop.

That's why this is now also a forum where opinions are exchanged and not expert advice..

By the way, I share the same opinion. I think there will be a market correction with an interest rate adjustment. Currently, there are still many players in the market who have kept afloat very, very cheaply with loans.
In the coming years, there won't be any big winners across industries. As always, there will still be winners of this "crisis".