Construction costs are currently skyrocketing

In the end, I come out all in, with all additional costs, new terrace and kitchen, at around 300,000 € total investment

Yes, but what did you pay for the house? I just checked your history, 100k for a house is almost a giveaway and you even got it at family price. You can't even get a condominium for that. For 300k, even here in rural SIG, I only find houses with which you can go to RLT2. Normal renovation cases from the 70s cost about 400k, plus buying incidental costs plus renovation. That makes 550-600k and that's simply a lot for a partly renovated house. And against that, I make the following calculation: Land 100k Town & Country Flair 134 including underfloor heating and heat pump 310k (price for SIG) Floors + painting + upgrades 50k Incidentals 50k Outdoor facilities 40k ------------- 550k A lot of this is calculated generously, you could stay significantly under 50k for building incidental costs and there is also a lot of leeway with 40k for outdoor facilities

Funny. If it serves one’s own argument, then the "Plattenbau standard" supposedly comes from Town & Country...

If you calculate it fairly, with the 3,500 EUR/m² that you assume elsewhere for standard equipment, then the 130m² house alone is already at 450,000 EUR. So all in all, 650,000 EUR plus kitchen and furniture.

And where you find a plot of land for 100,000 EUR... I don’t want to hang dead over the fence there. Magdeburg now already has 300 EUR/m² in suburban locations.

Here in the new development area, the plot costs 70k (700sqm at 98€). So there is still room to move. The fascinating thing is that in the sticks here, 400k is still being asked for old houses and they eventually disappear from the portals. With Town & Country, it is simply easier to get concrete prices than with the construction company Maier from Hintertupfingen. Yes, the standard is rather on the lower end, but in 1970 they also didn't install 15 sockets in the kitchen.

You are going in circles. Both territorially and in terms of the basic idea of how one can or wants to build. My wife and I searched for a plot of land for years. The suitable ones were unaffordable and the ones for €98,000 were so far off the mark. In the end, we bought an existing property (built in 1992) with nearly 900 sqm of land and almost completely renovated it because there were some (hidden) construction defects. In total, €300,000 were spent on the purchase, renovation, and furniture (new kitchen, bedroom). Location is great, we were even able to stay in our neighborhood. And yes, in the East, but just outside the gates of the most beautiful city in the world :cool:

I had thought those times were over ...

Partially - prices are somewhat cheaper. But then it’s a prefabricated house from the late 1960s for €400,000 instead of €570,000. Economically reasonable would perhaps be €230,000 plus €30,000 for demolition and disposal. Now I see the price at which one could buy + completely renovate before the interest rate turnaround. Today it would have to go down further.

Inflation at 6.1 percent (May 2023) is still clearly too high to be able to lower the key interest rate. The fact that mortgage rates have recently declined a bit also has the background that many banks are currently foregoing interest margin so that loan demand does not completely collapse. Should the key interest rate be lowered again, an immediate pass-through to customers is not to be expected.

Ultimately, you can see quite well from the yield curve and the swap that there is a sideways movement – despite good news on inflation in the USA & EU. The rate hikes by the FED & ECB are currently expected and priced in. Short-term relief is probably not to be expected.

The CIO view of UBS currently is that the first interest rate cuts are expected at the beginning of 2024. However, their Investment Banking is currently expecting, deviating from the house view, even a first step by the end of 2023 – that was their unofficial statement at the end of April. I have the next call at the end of July, I’m curious. Other European major banks we are in contact with say more or less the same, as someone wrote above, you can also clearly see it from the yield curve. How construction costs will develop is a topic I have zero knowledge about, but I personally think that now might be a good time to profit from the supply side being massively under pressure with appropriate equity. Buy 10-20% cheaper, take out a loan with a very low margin (because otherwise the banks can’t grant any more), and hopefully benefit in the next few years from the fact that interest rates will go down a bit again, then refinance at 2% and fix the interest rate for as long as possible... Please remind me of this in 15 years, then hopefully I can tell you whether it was clever :-/