Construction costs are currently skyrocketing

  • Erstellt am 2021-04-23 10:46:58

evelinoz

2021-10-30 07:49:59
  • #1
I bought my first property in DE at the beginning of ’84, the interest rate was between 7+8%. I repaid 3% and made an extra repayment each year.

One year after I sold it with a very good profit, real estate prices plummeted; it was the Asian crisis at the end of the ’90s. And real estate was then ridiculously cheap compared to today despite high interest rates.

In my country, I have already experienced two burst bubbles, the biggest in 2014/15. The market has not yet recovered from that. Back then, the mining boom ended, and everyone who had a dollar left owned at least a second property; people were in a buying frenzy (the shelves for the most expensive coffee machines could not be restocked fast enough). Many people have second properties as additional retirement provision and because of negative gearing (less income tax).

Yes, and because here as well as in the UK, you can look up all sold properties online, usually with prices and the sales history, you can see how prices have developed, up, down, up, down. For example, a house around the corner was sold in Nov 2012 for $490k and now in July for $440k. The hardest hit are always the luxury properties here.

And yes, the baby boomers are my age group, 60-70, so those born after the war. And these baby boomers (in the big city) themselves did not have many children, mostly one or none at all. That means, for example, in my family environment there are only 2 boys (my grandchildren) who will eventually inherit the properties of several people in DE/UK/AUS/CY because there is no offspring. And yes, my local neighbors inherited this year, a mother had a house in a posh area, they bought a new apartment in Perth with a view over the city, the river, etc. No gardening, no maintenance on the house, etc. They are about 60 years old and no longer have to work.
 

Joedreck

2021-10-30 08:04:17
  • #2
Well, maybe RGG will also advance digitalization and pass a legal HO requirement, so that rural areas are upgraded. A side effect would be a decrease in individual traffic. Then real estate in the countryside would remain interesting and be in greater demand. But who knows..
 

Wassermann

2021-10-30 08:35:15
  • #3
I have no idea which country you come from, but the way you describe real estate, it’s simply not like that in DE. Here, hardly anyone has a second property just for fun. Let’s ignore the less than 3 percent. And those who do have several properties are usually so well off that there surely won’t be any pressure to sell, no matter what happens.
 

BackSteinGotik

2021-10-30 10:11:08
  • #4


Generation inheritance – since Germans do little on the capital market, it will probably mainly be old, formerly expensive cars and old houses/apartments to inherit. The latter are the nasty lumps. Great today, but what about tomorrow? In 5-10 years, it will be quite clear – there will be more old houses with huge modernization backlogs than buyers. The groups of house seekers in Germany are getting smaller year by year. And rents are becoming significantly more attractive again due to price explosions. The market is not characterized by shortage but by greed and FoMo. That means grandma’s house can very quickly bring in only 300,000 instead of 600,000. What grows exponentially can also collapse just as quickly.

Of course, skilled workers will be missing. But that also means no more mobile nursing services will come. That means all the elderly who still live in entire streets now (where all the small, colorfully stickered cars of the services park) will no longer be able to do so easily and will need their capital for alternatives.

And whoever has the time today to wait 5 years certainly has more chances than risks if they can no longer afford anything anyway. Which is the conclusion from most of the financing threads in recent months. Which, strangely enough, have declined rapidly compared to 2020. I wonder why?
 

BackSteinGotik

2021-10-30 10:17:07
  • #5


Then just look on YouTube – since "passive income" and being lazy at 40 has become a mega topic, normal people are also buying low-interest rental properties there. Minimal equity input, and decent credit leverage. For those for whom the "guaranteed" 8% ETF and dividend yield is not enough. Will everyone come out of the game unscathed?
 

konibar

2021-10-30 10:49:08
  • #6


and whoever does not want to play along in real estate gambling themselves just buys real estate fund shares and lets the fund management do the gambling.

Since it is always about redistribution upwards, the (few) winners will always live at the expense of the many losers. After all, the cake to be distributed is only getting marginally bigger.
 

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