Construction costs are currently skyrocketing

A builder buys a shell construction as you wrote - and this whole thing got 0.29% more expensive ;)

That may apply to you, but according to the Federal Statistical Office, it was just under 14% between 2/22 and 2/23. I trust these numbers more than your numbers (n=1). No hard feelings.

That may apply to you, but according to the Federal Statistical Office, it was just under 14% between 2/22 and 2/23. I trust these figures more than your numbers (n=1). No hard feelings.

No no, no panic - both can of course be viewed over a cup of coffee ;)

I find the following. Please note that this is a quarterly comparison!

Wait a moment, the house price index is calculated based on transaction data from the [Gutachterausschüsse für Grundstückswerte]. In other words, for existing properties or to a small extent also for newly built projects. The fact that the market is currently bad for this can simply be explained by the increased interest rates as well as the uncertainties (inflation, heating confusion, renovation obligations). This may, but does not have to, apply to newly constructed buildings as is currently the case, because here inflation is particularly price-driving. You can hardly say to the [GU]: "Because existing buildings/projects are now going for less, I want you to build my house for less too." They have their margin, which they can hardly push permanently below zero without going bankrupt! It costs what it costs...

Wait a moment, the house price index is calculated based on transaction data from the expert committees for property values. In other words, for existing properties and to a small extent for newly built projects. The fact that the market is currently bad can simply be explained by the rising interest rates as well as the uncertainties (inflation, heating confusion, renovation obligations). This may, but does not have to, apply to newly constructed buildings as currently, because here inflation is a major price driver.

You can hardly tell the general contractor: "because the existing buildings/projects are now going for less, I want you to build my house for less too." They have their margin, which they can hardly push below zero permanently without going bankrupt! It costs what it costs...

But according to the chart, prices for new buildings are (still) not falling year-on-year. I just wanted to support the discussion with data.

Before a general contractor sells nothing at all, they sell with declining margins to have any cash flow at all. A similar chart should also be available for the development of incoming orders.

A similar graphic should also be found for the development of incoming orders.

Source of the graphics prepared this way: The blog "Relevant Economics", article from 29.03.2023

(here we see month to month, thus a stronger dynamic)