Construction costs are currently skyrocketing

Today spoke with field service reps regarding delivery times: Fans partly 50 weeks, hot water storage tanks 300 liters 2 pieces currently available, prior sale reserved as usual, if gone then gone and approx. half a year delivery time... A crappy circulation pump depending on type around 2-3 months because some types only still made to order and from a certain quantity all produced once every 1.5 months...

Just received the invoice for my garden landscaping project last week 1 ton 0/32 = €28.50, 1m² 0815 walkway slab 40x40 = €17.94

Offer ENplus wood pellets as bagged goods 1 ton = €414.35

Today at the hardware store, parquet: prices partially covered and also a note indicating that one should expect a roughly 15% price increase surcharge on the listed prices due to the current situation. The nice gentleman didn’t even want to commit to whether the selected parquet would be available this year. The reason is apparently the carrier board made of spruce.

At our hardware store, all prices were completely removed. From now on, only daily prices apply for tiles, door handles, garage doors, wood, etc. Since January 1st, they apparently had price increases multiple times per week in some cases and many items are no longer available. Our oiled, rustic solid wood parquet has also jumped to almost €100/m² by now (60% more expensive in 3 months).

(This is not investment advice!) I think the point is that, if you calculate theoretically "okay, I could make special repayments or I could invest in ETFs," on average (over several years) the ETF yielded more than the interest you saved by special repayments. (That an ETF is not risk-free is often ignored, hence probably the somewhat exaggerated "gambling"). The higher the mortgage interest rates and the lower the stock market gains are (hello crisis), the more it shifts towards "special repayments are worthwhile." Risk considerations come on top of that.

Now, with the war and the resulting shifted probability of extreme scenarios, I can somewhat understand the argument about gambling. However, if you look at the market trend over the last decades (not just years), you can already see the tendency that the market recovers even after major crises. The saying goes "time in the market, not timing the market." This form of investment is only suitable if you think long-term and do not need access to your money at a certain point in time.

At our building center, all prices have been completely removed. For tiles, door handles, garage doors, wood, etc., only daily prices apply from now on. Since January 1st, they have had multiple price increases several times a week, and many items are no longer available. Our oiled, rustic solid wood parquet has now risen to almost €100/m2 (60% more expensive in 3 months).

They will switch to digital price tags sooner or later, like the electronics retail chain(s)...

The whole thing of course also has its advantages. The upcoming price increases will no longer be given in percentages, but in multiplication rates. That makes the calculations much easier.

When you have to calculate whether a product increases by 26 percent or the price doubles or triples, that already has advantages.

And we are now heading into a phase where manufacturers and suppliers only give their prices non-bindingly. It doesn’t make sense to raise prices by 5 or 20 percent every two weeks. Better once properly and then it's quiet. Just increase by 1.5 times.

The price for raw and hot-rolled steel products has
developed within less than 4 weeks to more than 2.5 times its original price. Also medium- and long-term there is absolutely no relief in the market in sight. The
prices per purchased ton of steel are already above €2,000.00...

I had already written that in a few weeks no one will be able to start building in any way. Because there simply is no more material or the prices are no longer affordable. Unfortunately, the path is heading in this direction. It will still take a little while until this sinks in for everyone, but it will come.

Even if people laugh at me for it today.

You’d best buy a few bags of popcorn, sit on the sofa and watch the whole game from the sidelines.
When you see how German politics is escalating further and thus conjuring up the danger of driving the entire German economy at full speed into the wall, then no one need be surprised.

But everything still seems to be within limits. Interest rate hikes that would curb further inflationary escalation are not in sight.
Mrs. Lagarde still thinks it’s only a short phase. Well, she already said that 6 months ago. In real terms, we are all losing a lot of money and the interest rates should have long been at 6 percent. Rather at 8 percent.

Source for your theories: Telegram?

Just out of curiosity, looking at your last posts...