Construction costs are currently skyrocketing

Then we have different references to money. When construction interest rates rise by 0.2-0.3 percentage points within 8 weeks, that is certainly significant. There is no doubt that the level is still low. But the change simply went quite fast and may possibly continue like that.

I had to laugh because, as mentioned above, 20 pages were written about climate nonsense, which really contributes nothing to this year's price spiral.

By the way, I know what "earlier" was ;-)
Bought my first home in 2001 and paid it off in 2015. Interest rate 7.4% ;-)

In my view, patience brings very little at the moment. The houses that are supposedly empty at some point, I don't see them.
What I see is an aging society that certainly will NOT move into smaller apartments in old age, for the sake of the following generations. If the house has long been paid off, then living in it alone or as a couple is also good.
The shortage of skilled workers in construction is currently just the beginning. Go 10 years further...

Then there is Generation Inheritance. When the old die, many will receive a windfall. Either through the sale of real estate or through liquid capital. That drives costs up even further.

Those who are currently waiting and hoping that the market will cool down may act wisely.
But those who want to wait 5 - 10 years are certainly acting unwisely.

What I see is an aging society that certainly does NOT move into smaller apartments to a large extent in old age, for the sake of the succeeding generations.

I did not mean "moving into smaller apartments" by "voluntarily freeing up," but the last move...

... many are expecting a windfall. Be it through the sale of real estate ...

And at that point, you noticed it yourself. ;-) Therefore, no to this:

But anyone who wants to wait 5 - 10 years is certainly acting unwise.

If we are very lucky, we will not experience a bursting bubble, but we will certainly be flooded in a few years by an insane amount of vacated living square meters. Biology and mathematics do not negotiate on that. What exactly this will lead to and what we will make of it, I do not know yet.

Here, 30 pages are being rambled on in one go about the influence of climate change. But rising interest rates, which can easily represent 20k in total costs, are being laughed at ;-)

People in other times wouldn’t have even thought about a change in interest rates of over 0.2 or 0.3%.


A 0.2% interest rate increase... for example from 1.2 to 1.4% on a 400,000 euro loan amounts to around 13,000 euros, by the way.

I didn't mean "move into smaller apartments" with "involuntarily freeing up space," but the last move...

And at that point, you noticed it yourself. ;-)

Therefore, no to this here:

If we're very lucky, we won't experience a bursting bubble, but we will definitely be flooded in a few years by an enormous amount of freed-up living square meters. Biology and mathematics don't argue. What exactly this leads to and what we make of it, I don't know yet.

I have a different opinion, but that's what a forum lives on :) Yes, there will be inheritances and certainly also sales of houses/apartments. In what condition will they be in most cases then? Usually, it takes a good investment to make the place comfortable and presentable again.

The baby boomers are not all dying off in droves now. God forbid. They are currently in their 50s and 60s. Statistically, there is still plenty of time to live in the paid-off house.

There is no bubble per se. There are overheated regions, that's for sure. But a bubble? That is supposed to burst? And suddenly the building is 30% cheaper and houses/apartments only worth 50%? I would never believe that in my life :) If things actually turn out differently than I currently imagine, then prices will stagnate. A fall—I can't imagine that in any scenario.

People in other times wouldn’t have even thought about an interest rate change of over 0.2 or 0.3%.

A 0.2% interest rate increase .. for example from 1.2 to 1.4% on a 400,000 euro loan amounts to around 13,000 euros, by the way.

In my parents’ generation, no one had more than 150,000-200,000 DM in debt either. The relative reference size naturally also plays a significant role. Most people built gradually over time. Garden, eventually, attics are still partially not converted today.

This also distinguishes today’s homeowner from earlier generations.

Neither the topic of climate nor interest rates have an influence on what has happened in the last 2 years.

I see it differently .. the last 2 years are just a quintessence ... for example, take a look One can see the difference ... only, no one has converted formerly 1% repayment and 7% interest into 7% repayment and 1% interest, instead, the wish list hit and the builders built more expensively, but the providers of construction services are not stupid either and have raised their prices accordingly. In addition to all that come the interrupted supply chains, the effects of environmental regulations, which are a direct consequence of our climate problems, and so on.