TmMike_2
2022-04-06 21:26:43
- #1
Interest rates do not rise/fall to my knowledge with demand. Demand has certainly not decreased significantly in recent weeks.
The articles I have seen online so far all still predict rising interest rates. However, I have not fully understood why...
In my opinion, higher interest rates should lead to lower construction activity and thus lower demand. An apartment as an investment with 30% equity is simply no longer profitable beyond a certain interest rate.
In the long term, building prices should also fall again, but the war and the disrupted supply chains, which existed even before the war, still play a role here.
Currently, we have rising interest rates, extremely rising raw material prices, a chronic shortage of skilled tradespeople, and a government that is restructuring the subsidy program (and probably does not want to support single-family houses in the long term at all).
It is a conceivable difficult situation.
For example, apartments in Munich were already "extremely" expensive 15-20 years ago. Today, one would be happy to have a paid-off apartment in Munich, which is certainly worth double to triple.
Unfortunately, the current situation can only be properly assessed in the future.
Interest rates are short-term more aligned with bond yields. And yes, they are rising massively. But nobody. I do not know a single person who knows! knows what it will look like in 12, 24, 100 months