I believe with interest rates it is relatively predictable that they certainly won’t get cheaper than they are today. It will be exciting to see how strongly the ECB will have to react – the pressure from the FED and other banks doesn’t leave it as an isolated player. But that would only be the lower end – the outlook into the future is currently quite, quite bleak, so interest rates will continue to move upward. Take the guest topic, it’s coming..
The consequence: the directly available money volume for a purchase/build – i.e. equity + loan amount – continues to shrink because the money costs increase over the term. Due to inflation, the share of household income that can afford loans/housing is also shrinking – already now, the current burden is simply no longer affordable for many.
This means a further decline in demand. Or a shock. I always like to point to the number of threads/project presentations here in the forum. It should be slowly reaching zero. And if so, we are talking about incomes of €7,000 net and more – and even there, there are big doubts whether the project is a good idea. We have therefore completely left behind the middle class and reached the lower upper class, which is now having problems purchasing. Unless they bring significantly larger millions of equity..
As for new builds – or rather new build prices – it will probably take the longest. Before that, it will rather start with land. The bubble prices are no longer sustainable. In order to still get an offer for the extremely collapsed demand, the construction industry will have to adapt. It hasn’t really stood out for innovation so far. Since the global consumer market is currently collapsing quite a bit, international transport will also become easier again sometime next year. Then German timber prices will no longer be able to decouple from the world market, and raw materials will come under pressure again.
Otherwise – regarding new build projects by developers, I have already seen price reductions in marketing, small (€30,000), but still. At the listed price, you really have to search a long time for a crazy person – especially if 10, 20 others are trying the same at the same time..
FOMO is over and is ending hard for many – loans are no longer approved. The cycle continues as usual – we are getting a buyer’s market.
But will it really get cheaper for the average home builder if you also expect rising interest rates? If the house is €50k cheaper next year but the interest rate is above 4 percent, I haven’t gained anything, unless I bring a lot of equity myself.
Besides, you seem to be mainly considering the development of single-family homes. But for some time now, more and more multi-family houses and fewer single-family homes have been built, and this trend will probably continue. Housing is still needed after all.
So personally, I don’t think that in times of rising energy and labor costs (let’s be optimistically assume that the materials situation eases again) as well as rising interest rates, one should really wait for the planned new build project to become cheaper again next year. But of course, everyone has to decide that for themselves.