Land in sight, is house construction financially possible?

That would indeed be a great magic trick. Where exactly are the prices supposed to collapse? Wages? They would actually have to rise significantly to attract new talent to the trades. Materials? These prices are largely determined by the global market, just like energy prices, which we still predominantly source from fossil fuels. And even if we want to believe otherwise... on the global market, Germany is now a rather small player.

Land prices aren't getting cheaper either, and municipalities couldn't even do without the real estate transfer tax if they wanted to. Realtors and notaries will hardly let themselves be shortchanged.

That leaves the margins. There might be 5-10% there. But before building for zero profit, they'd rather shut down the business.

The prophecy of a dramatic price crash is self-reassurance for those who didn’t dare back then. There is no bubble, so nothing will burst. q

Material prices are set on the global market, but demand is falling worldwide. Hansgrohe / Duravit are already moving towards short-time work, I’ve also heard that kitchen appliance manufacturers like Bosch are affected. To gain market share in a shrinking market, they have to increase their efficiency and keep prices stable or even lower them, even as inflation continues to rise. I do think it will get cheaper because of this; it’s already happening.

I also think craftsman prices will come down a bit; the bosses are filling their pockets — there’s still room to pay journeymen more. However, not much will happen because the shortage still exists and they can charge all the prices they want.

Land prices are also a candidate to decrease, as much as it pains me because we just bought a large plot.

What kind of course of action can I derive from this?

My classic: always buy actively, and often even off-market. Furthermore, do not consider the exchanges and portals as a reflection of the market. First, because they are not truly so – and second, because on the contrary, they are even used as instruments to paint deceptive images of the market.

I would currently refrain from a construction project.

You can't always just wait. You have to live your time. If I had lived or bought or built according to external circumstances, I would still be living with Mom & Dad. I always had to act against the positive current, but I was still doing well and didn't waste a single year. The OP just has to present the 3-year self-employed income to the bank.

For people with sufficient equity and income, the situation is expected to improve since the utilization of the construction industry is decreasing and thus the waiting times. Especially the well-known manufacturers used to postpone orders by 2 years.

And personally, I can only recommend building when there is a need and the finances are right. Any bet on the future is uncertain

We are currently concretely in the planning phase and, to be honest, it’s no fun. Family with 2 children and property already exists. We got it from the city at an incredibly low price at the beginning of the year: 750 sqm for just under 90 TEUR. Over the past 6 months, we have obtained 4 concrete offers for the same house. 2x general contractors, 1x architect, 1x regional family business. Timber frame construction, no basement, carport for 2 cars, small shed for bikes and other equipment, 2 full floors with about 155 sqm living space, 1 family bathroom, 1 guest bathroom, standard fittings. It can’t be smaller!!!

The cost estimates range between 720 TEUR and over 800 TEUR (including the land). The cheapest offer was a general contractor with a factory in Poland, so not exactly the most expensive manufacturer.

Let’s say, with 250 TEUR equity (which we have saved over the last 15 years by tightening our belts and earning 0.01% interest (sob)), I still need about 500 TEUR from the bank. At over 4% interest (and rising), you’re already looking at a monthly rate of over 2500 EUR. And my fear is that this won’t be enough and the interest rates will continue to rise, not the hope that the opposite will happen in the next 12 months.

Of course, we could also say that it just won’t be the beautiful wooden house, but something simpler instead. But my research showed that we might only save 50 to 70 TEUR then (if we don’t go for a Town & Country house), but then we simply don’t get what we actually wanted at all.

If you can somehow afford it, then now or never. If you can’t afford it now, then most likely not in 6 or 12 months either. That’s my assessment and bitter realization on this, because we are currently facing the same decision.

Who did you ask? Timber framing is a broad field, from Danwood with mineral wool and styrofoam to providers with cellulose and wood fiber, there is a big price difference. I can actually only imagine 4k/sqm upwards with the latter. When comparing prices, always exclude the land, as well as things like carports and garden sheds. There is probably greater saving potential if you organize and build those yourself.