Wait with the building application because of the child construction allowance

Well, it would of course be nice to know at some point whether, for example, if you submit the application in November you will get the money, or if it would be better to wait until January with the application...

But nobody can tell you that now. And I also doubt that you will get a statement about it in November. You can only try, either you are the dog or the tree...

...from the financial report on the federal budget 2019 of the Federal Ministry of Finance (can be found with a bit of googling):

In the area of construction, urban development and housing, the significant changes compared to the previous year relate to Baukindergeld (+ €307.5 million), the promotion of urban development (+ €91 million), housing allowance (- €30 million), the program "Age-appropriate Renovation" of the KfW banking group....

Baukindergeld supports the first-time purchase of home ownership for families with children (new construction or existing property in Germany) in the period from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2020. The federal government finances €1,200 per child per year over a period of 10 years. The program is carried out by the KfW banking group. To finance the expected commitments for 2018 to 2020, expenditures of approximately €0.3 billion are planned for 2018, rising to approximately €1 billion by 2022.

Budget plan 06 - Federal Ministry of the Interior, for Building and Homeland
- Internal security .................................................... 5,422.7
- Integration and migration...................................... 1,713.5
- Minorities and displaced persons................................ 125.9
- Compensation for social housing promotion..... 1,518.2
- Promotion of urban development....................................... 899.8
- Grants for home ownership acquisition (Baukindergeld).......................................................570.0
- Housing allowance according to the Housing Allowance Act.... 510.0
- Premiums under the Housing Construction Premium Act.. 223.0
- Civil protection/disaster relief/technical assistance.....................................................364.7
- Sports promotion in the area of the BMI...................... 199.2
- Political foundations............................................... 121.0

Everyone should interpret the numbers themselves.... I also do not know if this is the most current since the report was already published in August 18. But since many numbers have been mixed up here and I stumbled upon it during internet research, I thought I’d just copy it in especially since these are no numbers from any newspaper articles.

In printed matter 19/5479 dated 5.11.2018, the following is stated in response to an inquiry from the FDP:
1. At what amount (total volume) are financial resources for the Baukindergeld planned to be provided in the federal budget according to the federal government's current plans (please differentiate by year and indicate how many cases can receive Baukindergeld with the financial resources according to the federal government's estimates)?

Answer (without table):
The following amounts are budgeted in the federal budget: (figures in million euros)
For the years 2018 to 2020, an expenditure of 262.5 million euros is assumed for each program year in the first year, as well as an authorization for commitments amounting to 3,037.5 million euros. The federal government finances 1,200 euros per child and year over a period of ten years. For the period from 2018 to 2021, expenses of 2.7 billion euros arise according to the current calculations.
The funds also cover fees for the fiduciary administration as well as mandate activities of the KfW banking group.
According to previous estimates, this allows around 550,000 families to receive Baukindergeld.

If you look at the table in the printed matter, you can see that the expenditures rise to 1 billion and are calculated from the sums of previous years (1k€ per child is incurred every year).

I suspect that the birth rates (1.5 children per family) were taken into account beforehand here. This results in 550k€ * 1.5 children * 1.2k€ * 10 years = 9.9 billion euros plus administrative costs.

It depends on whether the full 12k€ per application and year are planned in the federal budget or only the costs incurred each year (1k per child). From the FDP inquiry, what Face26 posted, and the KfW stating that the funds are probably sufficient, I believe the latter.

Let's wait and see....

In an article on tagesschau.de (" Kritik an Baukindergeld Eine Prämie mit starken Nebenwirkungen") it states that approximately 70,000 funding commitments have been granted so far. The article is also interesting because it identifies what many had already feared: namely, that the Baukindergeld has likely caused prices to rise further.

It was foreseeable. The corridor for those (mind you new buildings) who benefit from it is, in my opinion, relatively narrow. All those who had their building permit in hand from 01.01.18 and started building before autumn/winter 2018 are not affected by the price increase.

The rest are left empty-handed and have to live with disproportionate price increases from 2019 onwards. In 2020, another layer will be added and the last lemon squeezed, because then the [Baukindergeld] expires.

Yes, that is probably the case. It doesn't concern us anyway, we bought in 2017.