I believe there is a lot of speculation, calculated with strange numbers that no one understands themselves and not to forget, the headline: "Baukindergeld will just run out, will probably be enough" doesn't sound very exciting either.
Again the calculation: 10 billion with on average two children is enough for almost 420,000 applications. In the three months of the previous year, almost 48,000 applications were submitted. The calculation of those who claim it will be tight was probably the 48 thousand extrapolated for the year to almost 200,000. That would not last long.
As stated in the answer, one should not forget that all those who could have applied from January to September also did so in the last three months of the year.
It will remain open. If you only start in the coming months, you can neither firmly factor in the Baukindergeld nor write it off from the beginning.