But the opposite happens in case of shortage: prices are raised until demand drops to a level that the market can supply. And I see this case in the real estate market. Too little supply, too few plots, shortage of craftsmen, etc. So any kind of subsidy will automatically end up 1:1 in higher costs. So lower requirements will not reduce the house price either.
I see it the same way. Simply put, you can also look at it like this... the construction industry has a certain capacity per year. I seem to remember that we are talking about approx. 100,000 completed buildings per year. But that already includes apartment buildings. I also seem to recall that about 1/4 or 1/3 are single-family houses. And I think it’s fair to say that even if there were more demand, you couldn’t produce more buildings since the construction industry is at capacity.
Now there are two possibilities that could change house building prices. Supply increases and/or demand decreases. Since we are at the capacity limit in the construction industry (I would claim), there aren’t many options. Either the number of craftsmen increases (which is rather the opposite) or capacities shift. Meaning from commercial construction, etc. But I don’t necessarily see that happening as long as the economy works.
Then there is demand. That is actually simple. Sure, you can say requirements will get higher and maybe interest rates will rise, etc. But as long as there are still so many people able to pay the prices, and on the other side there are capacities, the prices certainly won’t decrease.
This is now a very simplified model and the numbers may not really be accurate since there are also renovations, etc. But if 30,000 houses can be built per year (supply) and every year 30,000 can be found who can pay for it, then building prices will not fall.
I think I write this here once a quarter. There are still enough who are able to do so. You can see that in the demand for building plots. And if the income doesn’t make it possible, then gifts and inheritances. It may be that the potential buyer group thins out. That may be annoying, but that is how it currently is and will probably remain so for a while.