thangorodrim
2023-12-08 19:42:52
- #1
Then construction prices are falling significantly in real terms. Construction prices, mind you, not the entire burden. But construction companies are not to blame for the interest rates.
Well, now they just switch from real to nominal construction cost increases. For a 20% increase with 10% inflation, they probably weren’t brave enough after all. But why? With the lack of competition, what can the customer do? Not build? ;-)
First, interest rates and inflation are low, construction costs rise exorbitantly (I recently read some forum posts again from 2019 and before, where people complained about the then 2500 euros/sqm and how expensive building had become). Then interest rates and inflation are high, construction costs rise exorbitantly. Material becomes more expensive, construction costs rise. Material becomes cheaper, but labor becomes more expensive, construction costs rise.
Now the truck toll is being increased or redesigned, then we will learn what immense impact the transport of house parts has on costs, because of course they will rise exorbitantly (this has already been cited in this forum as a reason for further cost increases).
A current study by Roland Berger assumes a recovery of the construction industry from 2025, probably only then will construction costs be able to rise again in real terms.
Probably more relevant for construction costs than the above polemic: In Dec 2022, a recovery from 2024 was forecast in a study by an EY Parthenon partner named Reineke. The author referred to "seamless digitization across all trades," which could increase productivity the most and help "cushion the current cost increases." Does anyone know if anything is actively happening there or is the construction industry currently only focusing on demands for "special funds" as possible ways out of the crisis?
In the same vein is a comment by a Mr. Hundertmark (who also has not converted to euros), who makes the somewhat flawed comparison that purely in terms of productivity a hypothetical construction worker who could build a house in a certain time in 1991 now needs twice as long, while a car production worker in the same time (since 1991) does not build one car but now two cars. Okay, the house as a product has become more complex, but that also applies to the car. I assume digitization is in no one’s interest, as it would pave the way to a more transparent and less sluggish market.