Air heat pump or use gas and solar?

No, I know. On the other hand, the brine heat pump they have is not bad either. Waterkotte Geo 1.

If it ever gets like in Denmark, where no gas heating systems are allowed to be installed in new buildings anymore, then demand will drop massively and supply will remain constant for decades. But of course, a Russia risk cannot be completely ruled out.

Gas turbine power plants Take a look at Kiel.

That’s the “good” thing about electricity, it can be generated from many energy sources. This creates price stability in generation. The rest are transit costs (which will probably become more expensive thanks to the “energy transition”) and especially taxes. The latter can be controlled by the state.

Gas is just gas. Biogas is ridiculously expensive, and as of now nobody wants it (farmer subsidies, they can’t manage on their own anymore). Prices can sometimes double within a year when looking back. Whether that will happen again... who knows. At least the linkage to the oil price no longer exists, otherwise this doubling would have happened in the last 1.5 years—just like with oil.

Without having read the previous posts in this topic:

We installed a gas heating system. According to the Energy Saving Ordinance, it is mandatory to have solar. This was the cheapest option for us both in terms of purchase price and ongoing costs.

The strongest reason for this was the outdoor unit of the split heat pump, which we did not want to have either behind or in front of the house.

What will happen with gas prices is also unknown, given the dependence on Russia it can quickly become 100% more expensive.

Historically not verifiable. In the last 60 years, the FRG/GDR had no more reliable foreign energy supplier. And that was during the Cold War, when other players were in charge than now. Compared to them, even Putin is a "perfect democrat." "The Russian" actually wants to expand his export capacities in the coming years. Regarding the OPEC mafia with its Sharia-state members, I would be more concerned about supply security and price stability.

I can only agree with that. With higher prices, Gasprom etc. would only be shooting themselves in the foot, and since Russia needs the money and still has enough of the commodity, not much will change there in the next 20-30 years.

P.S.
The prices for gas in Russia are downright ridiculous compared to ours here.

The energy consultant who performed the thermal insulation calculation for our new building recommends the gas/solar solution. He says that during the lifespan of the heating system, we would not achieve a payback on the brine heat pump.

The basis for this is the cost difference of €6,000 in favor of the gas/solar heating system (drilling and gas connection costs are each taken into account here).

He says an above-average hot water consumption further tips the balance towards gas/solar, as the heat pump simply heats up too slowly and therefore requires correspondingly large water storage tanks.