Hello,
I will try to explain it again; in more detail.
First of all, and according to my subjective perception: serious architects/GC/SC/CM/BT (across all types of construction) certainly make up 80%, the remaining 20% are divided between opportunists and low-cost providers. I come to this assessment when I take a look at my evaluations of construction documents from past years. I can also observe that a client who wants to sign with a low-cost provider rarely, if ever, finds their way to professional advice.
In response to my original statement that the entire construction industry benefits from low interest rates, you reply that mostly Billigheim&Co benefit from the good construction boom, not the entire construction industry. I have tried to understand this differing opinion.
I still stand by that because it is also what I experience daily.
The construction industry initially had no time to recover from the removal of the homeownership subsidy. After the subsidy was dropped, the number of building applications fell by a good ¼ below the previous year's figure (was it 2005 or 2006; I no longer remember). Then the real estate bubble burst in the USA with the well-known impacts here in Germany. In response to this and initiated by the ECB, the low interest rate period began around 2008/2009; continuing until today.
Up to around 2009, serious providers in Germany (regardless of solid or prefabricated construction, GC/SC or CM) also sold "normally well"; the low-cost providers only with massive subsidies (kitchen, home automation, etc.). One of the "victims" of subsidizing business policies is the IGB.
From about 2010, trade prices rose noticeably every year, often twice a year; interestingly, always starting with the plumbers. Meaning, material prices - and here we really come down to supply and demand - gave the first impulse to also increase the labor hour rates. Which of course also means that companies can finally refill their reserves and hire employees, which had not been possible for several years so easily. So, all in all, a good thing for all parties.
I am, by the way, relatively sure that the constant increase in material costs is one of the reasons why colleague Roter Wettbewerber is now mostly building his shell constructions again with his own bricklayers - with one exception. This is rather unusual in the industry because it is too risky.
Before you misunderstand me again - all providers in Germany benefit from the construction boom; 20%, however, disproportionately more than others! Why this is so is very easy to explain: as a result of historically low interest rates, many people who should not be able to afford building, economically speaking, also cannot. Unfortunately, they are resistant to learning and respond with barroom slogans like: "Are only the better earners allowed to build a house?" to factual arguments; among the 20% you will always find a salesperson without a trace of conscience. Unfortunately, banks have also only been thinking more intensively since about last autumn that 100% financing with 1% repayment is not the smartest combination. At least they are doing it now and thus protecting a certain clientele of potential builders from financial ruin (from themselves) ... even if the "victims" currently do not want to admit it.
Another disadvantage (from my point of view) is the possibility of arranging construction financing via the internet. A disadvantage, among other things, because local bankers - at least according to my experience - inform their customers about the experiences of other bank customers with this or that provider; warn about known risks. An anonymous bank institution cannot do this; and in my opinion, does not want to.
So on the one hand, we have the "normal day-to-day business" of serious providers and on the other, a large number "X" of people who suddenly and - if necessary, at all costs - can build a house. The latter have such a tight capital base that they MUST move into the 20%. Since this group is naturally larger, the share of low-cost providers in the market is correspondingly large and thus substantiates my statement that mostly the Billigheimer & Co. benefit from the construction boom. That the manufacturers of the materials required for construction in all three categories emerge as winners I did not consider worth mentioning, as it seems logical to me.
For the sake of completeness: between the two groups are the investors and they also feed the statistics you mentioned. Another aspect has been very well explained by "wewerad".
Not a low-cost provider and still benefits from the good economy. And when interest rates rise, then it goes downhill again, right?
I would not call it downhill because the Red colleague earned additional income on the margins; did not suddenly open up a completely different clientele. In this respect, and if he does not engage in nonsense in his business policy, sales will at most reduce to the level that was considered "normal" and market-typical before the introduction of subsidized houses. And this will also happen to all other serious providers operating in the market.
You must not underestimate trading in plots of land either. When interest rates rise noticeably - which will probably take quite some time - the price development per sqm of land will also relax to some extent. Since medium incomes continue to rise constantly, the clientele for the 80% automatically grows because people with medium incomes have different demands on their new building; they know that they pay for "giveaways." However, the statistics to be created then will hardly show any significantly different figures. So it's not enough to present numbers alone; they must also be interpreted.
And finally, I am very sure that in - perhaps 5 years from today - very many and young houses will be offered for sale (must be). Then the consequences of wrong decisions at the notary appointment will become apparent, but the smart ones will be rewarded.
Rhineland greetings
