Current financing offer from the house bank

Where do you get 2.45% from? That is not stated anywhere for me. Even 1.45% is quite a markup compared to 0.72% or wherever I end up here. Specifically, that is about twice as much interest and that is noticeable from the start. And as I said, I am calculating with rising interest rates. But not to the extent that a long fixed interest period is definitely worthwhile. You are comparing apples and oranges. Apart from the fact that inflation and debt ratio were lower in the past, until about 20 years ago all countries had their own currency. Insolvency only ever happens in foreign currencies. Now the euro (at least theoretically) is a foreign currency for all member states because they have no possibility to devalue themselves or print money. The former is still the case, the latter is attempted with all sorts of possible and impossible tricks through the back door. However, this creates a dependency of these countries on the ECB and vice versa - after all, Pandora’s box is open - a dependency of the ECB on politics within these countries. In this respect, normal monetary policy is by no means to be expected anytime soon, and correspondingly, sharply rising interest rates in 10 years are quite unlikely unless inflation is significantly higher than currently expected.

Italy was already in the euro before the ECB pursued a zero interest rate policy. And back then, Italy also paid significantly higher risk premiums and did not go bankrupt.

Where do you get 2.45% from? Nothing about that is in my information. Even 1.45% is quite a markup compared to 0.72% or what I get here. Specifically, that is about twice as much interest, and that is noticeable from the start. And as I said, I am calculating with rising interest rates. But not to the extent that a long fixed interest period is surely worthwhile.

You are comparing apples and oranges. Apart from the fact that inflation and debt ratios were lower in the past, until about 20 years ago all countries had their own currency. Insolvency, however, only ever happens in foreign currencies. Now the euro (at least theoretically) is a foreign currency for all member countries because they have no possibility to devalue themselves or print money. The former is still the case, the latter is attempted through all possible and impossible tricks by the back door. But this creates a dependency of these countries on the ECB as well as vice versa – after all, Pandora’s box is open – a dependency of the ECB on politics within these countries. Therefore, normal monetary policy is still a long way off, and correspondingly, sharply rising interest rates in 10 years are quite unlikely unless inflation is significantly stronger than currently expected.

Well, 0.72% is rather unlikely at 100% loan-to-value. And even if: I would still prefer 1.45% for 20 years or 1.65% for 30 years over a 10-year fixed interest rate, simply because it is absolutely clear that interest rates will move towards 2-3% and more. Many have financed at interest rates below 1% for 10 years with an amount and rate they can just afford at this low interest rate. That will backfire for many with these rising interest rates. I would have just played it safe and accepted 1.65% for 30 years – if necessary with a few square meters less living space if the rate is too expensive.

The real estate prices are only conditionally dependent on the interest rate.

.... simply because it is absolutely clear that interest rates are marching towards 2-3% and more...

Just because interest rates rise by a few basis points doesn’t mean the long-term trend is broken right away. You probably would have said the same thing back in 2006/07...
I stick to it - 15 years fixed interest, reasonable repayment, rising salaries, decreasing loan-to-value ratio and simultaneously saving some liquidity for a possible interest rate hike - best deal. Committing yourself to 30 years with 0.5/0.6% points more and paying more than necessary I find completely unnecessary. You shouldn’t think you know better than the bank - which is exactly why the interest rate jump is "only" 0.5% points. Do you think the bank is stupid? If the bank believed in massively rising interest rates, the rates for 30-year loans would be at 4% as a defensive offer. But the typical German also has 3 liability insurances, 4 disability insurances, 2 pension insurances, 5 building savings contracts, term life insurance etc. Some just simply have way too many worries - that’s what 30-year loans are for. A reasonable middle ground (as described by me above) and everything is good. No stress.

Many financed with interest rates below 1% for 10 years with an amount and rate they can just afford at this low interest rate

And that is exactly what I did not do and do not consider absolutely sensible. With my remaining debt, there is little to fear. For the follow-up financing, an option to increase the rate is also considered, depending on how much I repay beyond the home savings contract and how the interest rate develops exactly, I will probably reach full repayment in about 11-12 years with a rate of €2000. My goal is definitely not to pay off a house over 30 years; I consider that extremely unreasonable, also with regard to the maintenance costs that will then arise. If others plan for 35 years and fix the rate for only 10 years, that is their problem. There is definitely not only one solution, "the longest possible fixed interest rate." Depending on the financing and personal risk tolerance, other variants can also be rational.

simply because it is absolutely clear that interest rates will march toward 2-3% and more.

For me, it looks like this: 2% for follow-up financing -> bet fully paid off, the fools who paid 1.7% on everything back then... 2.5% -> still good 3% -> doesn’t matter, both about equally good 4% -> I just need one year longer than with 3%, but no apocalypse 5% and higher -> then the debts are probably inflated away You can calmly run through all this today. And in this case, there is a decent upside with limited downside. If a major crisis manifests at the end of the ’20s and interest rates fall again to rock bottom, I’ll do a forward and take advantage of that. If a strong interest rate increase should be indicated at the end of the ’20s, there is also the option of a forward. So I definitely have options for action. Additionally, there is a decent ETF savings plan running; if absolutely necessary, something can still be redirected into the financing. But I wouldn’t fix the stock market now in the financing, only ever as an option in case the conditions are favorable.

Real estate prices are only partially dependent on the interest rate.

Just because interest rates rise by a few basis points doesn't mean the long-term trend is immediately broken. You probably would have said the same thing in 2006/07...
I stand by it – 15 years fixed interest, reasonable repayment, rising salaries, decreasing loan-to-value ratio, and at the same time saving some liquidity for a possible interest rate increase – best deal. Binding yourself to 30 years with 0.5/0.6% points more and paying more than necessary I find completely unnecessary. You shouldn’t think you know better than the bank – that’s exactly why the interest rate jump is “only” 0.5%. Do you think the bank is stupid? If the bank believed in massively rising interest rates, the rates for 30-year loans would be at 4% as a defensive offer. But the typical German also has 3 liability insurances, 4 disability insurances, 2 pension insurances, 5 building savings contracts, term life insurance, etc. Some people just have way too many worries – that’s what 30-year loans are for. A reasonable middle ground (as I described above) and everything is fine. No stress.

The bank refinances your 30-year loan directly. It “buys” your loan at the central bank and immediately gets 0.4% “gifted” because it purchases it... then offers you 1.6% onward and refinances your loan with the same term.

I will take out a home savings contract with a minimal deposit and secure an interest rate of 1.0% for 20 years (of which 18 years repayment)