Is buying a house sensible in the current market situation?!

not to forget that today's savings options are only a number on the paper. In 1929, 1945, 1989 the papers became worthless overnight, Grandma's house from 1910 still stands and the 5000 marks at that time have paid off over generations in rent-free living

Economically it would probably make sense to completely abandon the house and not invest any more money in it. If you renovate/modernize extensively after 20-30 years, that can really eat up the increase in value. A house is and remains a luxury item. Real estate is probably most profitable when your tenants pay it off for you. The motto should therefore be: live cheaply in rented accommodation and invest your equity in rental properties.

not to forget that today’s savings opportunities are just a number on a sheet of paper. In 1929, 1945, and 1989 those notes became worthless overnight, grandma’s house from 1910 still stands, and the 5000 marks from back then paid off over generations in rent freedom

How unfortunate that you can only give one like as a maximum; in my view, your post deserves more. Just by the way: My grandparents on both sides did not own property, and everyone in my circle of acquaintances and relatives whose grandparents have/had property is financially much better off today, despite an otherwise almost identical starting position. I think the possibilities that “own land/house” open up are sometimes underestimated. However, I am happy to be convinced of the opposite argumentatively.

I think people sometimes underestimate the opportunities that "own land/house" open up. However, I am happy to be convainced otherwise through arguments.

There have already been quite a few time series analyses on this (buying vs. renting). If you look at these, the last 10 years are definitely an anomaly. However, in every respect, the never-ending rally on the stock market / in ETFs is certainly also something for future generations of scientists.

Ownership is forced savings. Those who do not need flexibility can certainly achieve great advantages with this, possibly financial as well – the profit lies there (and always with real estate) in the purchase price. Do we have good purchase prices today? Anyone with an old rental contract from < 2010, and a (private) landlord who prefers peace & long-term tenants, will still have a big gap to new rent or new purchase/construction today. This gap in ETFs, and that's that. The problem, as with the OP, is that he is not flexible regarding the family situation; a garden and more space would now be necessary/desirable for 20 years.

So you have to consider where we currently stand in the cycle. The statement that one could experience a real estate bubble in the next 30 years is of course nicely phrased – it is certainly ahead of us, and not just behind us. And it will come, that is of course just as certain. Enter Munich and bubble in Google, then you will find quite a bit about the there "of course" ever-increasing prices. But even if so – where in Lower Saxony are boom regions that justify such an analogous development? Where are the big companies that continue to flourish, expand and pay well according to IGM? Where is demographic change not foreseeable?

In conclusion – if you want to afford the luxury – i.e. the consumption component, risk management must be right; in other words, financial viability must be ensured even in times of crisis and with one income. If this rate is too low, the topic is over for the household. Since incomes do not grow, and not everyone inherits, more and more potential new + young demanders will fall out of the market over time. And over the years, increasingly large cohorts push out of the demographic - apple tree – because we haven’t had a little fir tree for a long time. Maybe good for the young families whose founders are now 15–20 years old – the rest still don’t benefit much from this currently..

Since we currently have no specific property in sight, but have been observing the market for about 1.5 years and have already done plenty of viewings, I assume the median of purchases (house or condominium) that would be relevant for us is 600K.

He, 33 years old, permanently employed, public sector, 2600 net (plus 14 salaries plus bonus / about 5000) - from 2021 about 3000 net (regulated) She, 32 years old, permanently employed part-time at 25 hours, 2300 net (plus special payments about 2000) 1 child (child benefit) - a second possibly in the next 3-5 years

So, with a purchase price of 600,000€ for an existing property, you also have to add property transfer tax, fees, and agent costs. Without any expenses for renovation, etc., you then end up at around 680,000€. That means not much of your equity remains for the actual purchase. This also shifts you into somewhat less favorable interest rate brackets, and with luck you are at a 90% financing - with full equity use. Feasible, but initially on the upper end with your income.

There have already been quite a few time series analyses on this (buying vs. renting). If you look at them, the last 10 years are certainly an anomaly. However, in every respect, the never-ending rally in the stock market / ETFs is also surely something for future generations of scientists.

Ownership is forced saving. Those who do not need flexibility can certainly gain great advantages, possibly financial as well – the profit lies there (and always with real estate) in the purchase price. Do we have good purchase prices today?
If you have an old rental contract from < 2010 and a (private) landlord who prefers peace & long-term tenants, today there is still a big delta to new rent or new purchase/construction. Put this delta into ETFs, and that’s good. The problem, as with the OP – he is not flexible regarding the family situation; a garden and more space are now needed/desirable for 20 years.

So you have to consider where we currently stand in the cycle. The statement that one could experience a real estate bubble in the next 30 years is, of course, nicely phrased – it is certainly ahead of us, not just behind us. And it will come, that is of course just as certain. Enter Munich and bubble into Google, and you will find quite a bit about the “naturally” ever-increasing prices there. But even if – where in Lower Saxony are the boom regions that justify such an analogous development? Where are there big corporations that continue to flourish, expand, and pay well according to IG Metall? Where is the demographic change not foreseeable?

In conclusion – if you want to afford the luxury – i.e., the consumption component – risk management must be right; meaning financial viability is ensured even in times of crisis and with one income. If this rate is too low, the topic is finished for the household. Since incomes are not growing, and not everyone inherits, more and more potential new + young demanders drop out of the market over time. And over the years, larger cohorts move to the top of the demographic – apple tree – because we have long since no longer had a little fir tree.
Maybe good for the young families whose founders are now 15-20 years old – the rest currently doesn’t benefit much from it..

The fact is that there have been no crashes in the real estate market for a very long time. Whether one can currently see the present situation as a bubble, I still dare to doubt.
Another fact is that nobody knows what will happen in 30 years. Not even in 5. Perhaps, only just perhaps, a rethink about digitization actually occurs and the presence days in companies gradually decrease. This may also lead to these "boom regions" no longer existing in this way in the future.
Maybe it will be different. Maybe there will be a war in 10 years.
All these "maybes" should rather not influence our actions today regarding owning a property. If you want one and can afford it, then go for it. Only I would not calculate in an increase in value. As likely as that may be.