Is buying a house sensible in the current market situation?!

So in Russia there was also an enormous interest rate hike. At the start of the war, the Russian key interest rate rose from 8.5 to 20 percent. Well, the ruble has significantly appreciated again after its collapse in early March and is now trading back at pre-war levels.

If gas deliveries now have to be paid in rubles and a gold backing is achieved, it will continue to appreciate. The West has really miscalculated here. Strong ruble, more expensive oil and gas.

In the event of a delivery stop, there would be an economic bloodbath in Germany. Prices will rise so exorbitantly here that the ECB will have to raise interest rates significantly and quickly. And that without regard for losses. In my opinion, it should have done so long ago. I still believe we will see 5-6 percent this year.

There is the absolute danger that the ECB will no longer be able to contain inflation. Lagarde is still talking today about temporary inflation. She probably hasn't realized that it has been rising for a year already and above all increasingly faster. And because she always talks about inflation expectations, the outlook is currently very bleak.

Meanwhile, I am currently reading about how the fronts are hardening even further. On the one hand, a devaluation of the US dollar is threatened due to the sanctions, accompanied by a strong appreciation of the ruble. On the other hand, the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs is considering expropriation of Russian companies in Germany. Gazprom and Rosneft are to be expropriated along with their subsidiaries in Germany. Rosneft operates the refinery in Schwedt. So here they are obviously going into full confrontation with Russia. I don't think these are wise and considered steps. They should just keep a low profile.

So there was also an enormous interest rate hike in Russia. At the beginning of the war, the Russian key interest rate rose from 8.5 to 20 percent. Well, after its crash in early March, the ruble appreciated significantly again and today is trading at pre-war levels. If gas deliveries now have to be paid for in rubles and a gold backing is achieved, it will continue to appreciate. The West has really miscalculated here. Strong ruble, more expensive oil and gas.

Actually, it’s not worth responding to your statements at all, but to speak of an appreciating ruble while it is currently not even traded internationally only shows me how little you understand. The exchange rate you are referring to is basically made up. The fact that Russian citizens cannot exchange their "valuable" rubles for other currencies is, in my view, a desperate attempt to keep the currency stable. By the way, there are increasing reports that on the Russian black market 300 to 400 rubles are currently paid for one dollar…

We also searched unsuccessfully for four years and watched as prices kept rising. For family reasons, we then moved for a few months to a significantly cheaper area and even considered buying something there. In the end, however, we realized that we simply didn’t feel at home there (even though my wife is from there) and moved back again. We then made the decision for ourselves that we would rather live here, even if that involves many compromises (finding a sufficiently large rental apartment when you have two children and pets is extremely difficult here, and we are currently missing a room). Fortunately, a few weeks ago, we were offered a municipal plot of land (for which we had applied since 2018 and had repeatedly received rejections) and now we can finally build in our desired area.

What I want to tell you with this is: If you absolutely want to stay in your current area and have not found anything after years of searching, then you will probably have to either give up the dream of a single-family house or ask the city about plots of land and be persistent. We asked repeatedly for almost four years and kept getting rejections until it finally worked out. Of course, that doesn’t always have to work, but it reads as if that is your only chance (just as it was for us), so I would definitely try it. The idea of a rented condominium might have been good a few months ago, but I hardly believe that it still makes much sense with the current prices and interest rates. Better to park the money in other asset classes; this also has the advantage that the money is more quickly accessible in case you find a suitable existing property after all. You also often don’t get plots from the city if you already own real estate.

The only category that remains really interesting in the inventory is the very new houses. Renovations are okay, but extensive refurbishments and conversions to bring settlement houses up to the 2022 standard are hardly worthwhile and are as risky as new builds.

However, refurbishments have the advantage that you can achieve a higher income. All inclusive will of course be expensive.

Renovations have the advantage that you can put more into EL. All inclusive is of course expensive.

Yes, but still the renovation base itself is already way too expensive (often demolition + new construction is actually the most sensible measure, but because of the price not feasible). And if you really have to tackle it energetically (that will definitely come this year for 2023, 2024), I don’t know if EL is still so strongly applicable there (underfloor heating, insulation, etc.) – except in the classic tradesman’s house for craftsmen with access to specialized trades..