Saving or building, which is more sensible?

  • Erstellt am 2019-01-12 10:25:54

RomeoZwo

2019-01-15 11:23:22
  • #1


The model also works with 1 kid (no idea if it still works with 2), if both share the child-rearing.
That's what we're doing right now, both working 60% in parental part-time (yes, both are allowed, but parental allowance is only paid once). The model only works if both earn roughly the same. But at least in our circle of acquaintances, this is now more the rule than the exception.
The downside is that career-wise, nothing moves forward for either during that time – that shows how outdated the working world still is...
 

chand1986

2019-01-15 11:28:11
  • #2


Why this nonsense always appears so often as the narrative of the Euro story will remain an eternal mystery to me.

Fact: Germany has so far earned well from the "aid" through interest.

Fact: Germany exports unemployment because of its current account surpluses and uses the Euro for this. Is that solidarity?

Fact: This unemployment is what can drive the southern countries out of the Euro, among other things.

Fact: The "aid policy" went hand in hand with reforms that poured oil on the fire. Those who decree wage reductions in countries without significant export strength destroy local domestic markets. This can drive countries, among others, out of the Euro.

Fact: Germany exports capital because of its current account surpluses. These foreign assets never produce a net economic return as long as the surpluses exist. Simple accounting.

These facts do not fit into the narrative. Otherwise, no one here believes what the newspapers standardly write...



They will soon have nothing left to lose if things continue like this here. So why stay?
 

chand1986

2019-01-15 11:29:44
  • #3
Just ask him: : Do you want your thread back?

Or have you received so much food for thought that you want to sleep on it first?
 

berny

2019-01-15 11:49:36
  • #4
Let's assume all your "facts" are correct: If that were the case, only the German Eurocrats (as puppets of the German economy) would have a genuine interest in preserving the Euro. And? The result would be - for reasons other than I thought - the same. € remains, continuing to wither away. The other scenario is not even boldly spoken out by the AfD. Let's make a little bet. Will the Euro remain (let's say at least another 10 years)? Or will it break apart in some form? I say: It will remain, becoming gradually more worthless. The loser pays for a dinner at the Kronenhalle in ZH at the beginning of 2029 - if I'm still alive then.
 

chand1986

2019-01-15 12:54:35
  • #5
Yes, it comes down to that extreme point. And a few other small surplus countries, the Netherlands, Austria.

Here too, I partly agree with you. However, there is an unlikely but not impossible scenario in which France realizes that economically it belongs alongside Italy rather than Germany. And thus, German interests could be overridden. A solo move by Italy with an exit from the Euro could also collapse the system. But I see that as even less likely.

I had already suspected the break before today, since I did not believe the ECB would put forward its famous "whatever it takes." So one has to be careful with forecasts, especially when they concern the future... I know it can definitely be kept running for longer than 10 years. That’s why I don’t trust myself with the bet.

The Dexit? That would also be Germany’s ruin, given how the economy is currently structured. Anyone who relies entirely on exports and accepts 15 years of stagnation in the domestic market is as addicted to their weak currency as a junkie to a needle. Exit here is cold turkey with the risk of circulatory collapse.

The other alternative, slowly restructuring Germany back toward the domestic market, is completely overlooked because it would require things like large fiscal policy interventions and thus the end of the balanced budget. Also highly unlikely.
 

berny

2019-01-15 13:14:30
  • #6
Well, then at least the two of us somewhat agree on the assessment of the general things.


Agreement: Never speculate against a central bank; it always has more time than you and eventually prints its own money...

But that still does not answer the question about poor da Bayer. Surely he is already ordering the first excavators and trucks ... or he has quickly emigrated to Liechtenstein
 
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