Let’s assume all your "facts" are correct: If that were the case, then only the German Eurocrats (as puppets of the German economy) would have a real interest in preserving the Euro.
Yes, it comes down to that extreme point. And a few other small surplus countries, the Netherlands, Austria.
So? The result would be – for reasons other than those I thought – the same. € remains, but continues to wither away.
Here too, I partly agree with you. However, there is an unlikely but not impossible scenario in which France realizes that economically it belongs alongside Italy rather than Germany. And thus, German interests could be overridden. A solo move by Italy with an exit from the Euro could also collapse the system. But I see that as even less likely.
We could make a little bet. Will the Euro remain (let’s say for at least another 10 years)? Or will it break in some form?
I had already suspected the break before today, since I did not believe the ECB would put forward its famous "whatever it takes." So one has to be careful with forecasts, especially when they concern the future... I know it can definitely be kept running for longer than 10 years. That’s why I don’t trust myself with the bet.
The other scenario isn’t even daringly voiced by the AfD.
The
Dexit? That would also be Germany’s ruin, given how the economy is currently structured. Anyone who relies entirely on exports and accepts 15 years of stagnation in the domestic market is as addicted to their weak currency as a junkie to a needle. Exit here is cold turkey with the risk of circulatory collapse.
The other alternative, slowly restructuring Germany back toward the domestic market, is completely overlooked because it would require things like large fiscal policy interventions and thus the end of the balanced budget. Also highly unlikely.