Saving or building, which is more sensible?

  • Erstellt am 2019-01-12 10:25:54

berny

2019-01-15 10:39:21
  • #1
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Well, you can see it differently. I went to work in Switzerland in 2007. To send the first 1000 € back to Germany, I had to spend exactly 1710.- CHF at that time. Today it is about 1350. You can calculate for yourself... No idea how it will go from here, but there are long-term charts...
The OP asked whether he should quickly build out of fear of the depreciation of his earned currency. Of course he should build, it’s great as a young person. But will he ever see the prices that have risen exorbitantly quickly in recent years again in a potential sale? One could also say we currently have a huge real estate bubble. How such things end could be seen in the USA or e.g. Spain. As an alternative to securing the future, an investment in an ancient currency that is becoming increasingly valuable (after all, it survived 2 world wars and a lot of other European currencies) is certainly worth considering.
But ultimately everyone must answer that for themselves.
 

chand1986

2019-01-15 10:52:11
  • #2


I am talking about something else: the bursting of the currency (because, for example, Italy gets serious), the return to national currencies and the associated appreciation of a new D-Mark.

In the long term, the franc has appreciated so far. A new D-Mark would appreciate overnight by 30-50% against the previous euro - which devalues the franc in relation to this new currency. Just like all other currencies do. You would then have to buy 1000 units of the new currency with about 2000 francs - the long-term chart is then only good as toilet paper.
 

Caspar2020

2019-01-15 11:06:39
  • #3


Until that happens, I’d rather wipe my behind with toilet paper bought with francs and dollars than with leaves from the forest because I couldn’t buy any with euros.

It may be that a Deutschmark would appreciate if it were introduced, but for that to happen, the entire EU/EUR construct would have to go downhill massively before a new Deutschmark would be introduced.
 

berny

2019-01-15 11:10:22
  • #4


Probably nothing happens overnight It would have to be prepared for a very long time.

One can weigh the options. What is more likely?

1. The Eurocrats let the € "burst overnight"? They admit that the whole project was not well thought out? With all the short-term chaotic consequences?
2. The same actors continue as before? Keep printing more and more money, artificially keeping the southern countries alive? Buy more "time" via the ECB? Time for what exactly? The Italians will never leave the €, just like the Spaniards, Greeks, or French. Somehow the northern countries keep footing the bill over and over again. Redistribution from north to south - of course, one can also call that solidarity.

Depending on which scenario one considers more likely, one can behave accordingly. Let’s see how it goes. For my part, I think the € will continue to be a soft currency. The USD is no longer what it used to be, and aside from the yen and the Swiss franc, there are not many solid investment options left. Gold in tradable denominations, maybe? It is also an ancient means of payment. But as written above, everyone as they personally prefer...
 

chand1986

2019-01-15 11:15:39
  • #5


But have you noticed that with a policy like Germany's, consumer prices (which I include toilet paper in) are deflationary(!)? And the case of Japan impressively shows that government intervention, when the balanced budget is no longer sustainable because no stupidity lasts forever, does not simply lead to inflation.

Although we are here in the house building forum, the majority of Germans don't want to build houses but want to pay at the supermarket checkouts.



The idea behind the euro has long failed. If a major player like Italy, which is worse off than us and has much less to lose, pulls the emergency brake, it probably all goes down the drain. Or just think, after Macron's poor performance, France might actually vote for Le Pen out of pure desperation...
 

berny

2019-01-15 11:17:00
  • #6
Oh, has anyone seen Da Bayer? Should we be worrieden?
 
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