Opportunities for municipal land, experiences?

Hi,

we have a viewing appointment on Saturday for a plot of land from a private sale. We are registered and would get it. Originally, it was supposed to be sold only at the beginning of 2025, but the call came the day before yesterday that it can happen earlier.
However, we have now learned that a municipal housing development is coming directly near our employers and the allocation will probably take place by the end of the year. This is done according to a points system and we have no children. There are apparently 16 plots and about 3 plots are offered one after another with a 4-week application deadline.
The private plot is nice, flat in a nice dead-end street and on the outskirts of a small town. But a 24-minute commute by car for both of us (we basically work next to each other).
The municipal housing development would be only 9 minutes away, village but with very good connections and cities in the immediate vicinity.

Advantages of the municipality would be savings in travel costs of about €2500/year or probably significantly more because we would cycle. And just under 30 minutes/day in saved travel time, which is really a major inconvenience. Better connections to various employers and cities.
Costs at the municipality would probably be somewhat higher, which I am willing to accept for the location.

We are now extremely uncertain how to proceed. If we put off the private seller and don’t get a plot from the municipality, we will be left completely empty-handed. The private seller still has 2 plots and currently no listings or other interested parties, but that could change quickly because he only recently got the OK from his financial advisor for the sale. We have actually wanted to build for almost 6 years. On the other hand, I find the travel time and additional costs very annoying with the private plot.
How do you see the chances for childless married couples around 30 years old with municipalities? Still terribly bad or has that improved due to increased costs and interest rates?

In the last 3 years, three building areas were developed and allocated here. For the first one, we were on the waiting list (with one child). Now, with the last one, we have our desired plot, the others are ALL not sold. The municipality can't get rid of them. However, for us, the "plots will be allocated at the end of the year" unfortunately only happened the year after next.

What do you think are the chances for childless married couples ~30 years old with municipalities?

It depends on the location. In a good location (e.g., commuter belts of thriving big cities) currently still really bad.

You could buy the private property and still apply for the others. If you're lucky, you can sell the worse one again. Of course, this depends on supply and demand. If that's not a financial option, I would probably take the risk and hope for better offers from the community.

I would not focus so much on the employer. Employers can change, eventually you retire or take parental leave for a longer period. A 30-minute commute to work is not really that much, so it should not be a disqualifying factor.

The locations both have advantages and disadvantages. I myself have been a 24-minute commuter:

30 km including 15 minutes on the highway to the big city, which has the advantage that you can take care of many things right after work, including special items. Those 24 minutes are well used.

24 minutes for 12 km "through the villages" is also quite relaxing to unwind and does not have much financial impact.

What is it like for you?

9 minutes by bike can again mean that you then have to get in the car to run errands. For that, you may then spend more travel time. So when do you actually ride your bike?

Many people need variety, possible options even in old age, others don't like shopping and only go out once a week.
In this respect, 24 minutes is not worth mentioning for many people, and can even be enriching and more practical for lifestyle.

Then the new development area: many people are scared of it, others see advantages with children, protection and neighbors with similar interests, while others prefer individualism and independence on a single plot of land.

What about in 5 / 10 years? Are your perceived advantages and disadvantages still advantages or disadvantages then?

What about the development plan? Can you build a house on both options as you imagine it? Or does something restrict you?

I probably wouldn't rely on the new development area and would focus on what is tangible now. But of course there are also would-have-should-have people who regret it for their whole lives afterwards.