Savings beginner with questions about the plausibility of the "rough" plan

  • Erstellt am 2015-12-27 15:23:07

Steffen80

2016-02-12 09:56:15
  • #1


I don't understand that. Why has the person with little equity paid off the house further? Assuming both built the same house.
 

Vanben

2016-02-12 10:16:15
  • #2


I would like to calculate the optimal equity ratio but must admit that I lack the necessary mathematical knowledge. If you could put that into a formula, I would be really grateful.

Therefore, I have tried to approach this by comparing certain assumptions with each other as an example. Of course, it is easy to criticize these assumptions, but then please be specific so that one can actually calculate it. So far, mentioned are the interest on savings, which I actually set at 3%, much too high, and the construction prices, which in my calculation also include prices for existing properties (2014-2015), which are, for example, less affected by increases due to the Energy Saving Ordinance. However, both are factors that tend to shift the result rather towards "against high equity."



Whether the PI is worthwhile is probably very individual (e.g., temporary unemployment vs. permanent disability). However, I assume that with a continued reduced income and >100k debts, the PI is rather used.

What the security via equity costs, on the other hand, can be roughly calculated: rent payment during the saving phase + increased construction prices – interest on capital (depending on the market situation, one may save a little due to a lower interest rate through the higher equity, or pay more because interest rates overall have risen in the meantime).



Correct, no one can see into the future. But one could probably agree that interest rates can hardly fall by another 1% in the future, while upward (almost) anything is possible. By the way, in my calculations, I assumed that a correspondingly long fixed interest period is used; otherwise, even the 110% borrower would not pay 3.13%. The "interest rate risk" thus lies almost exclusively with the "saver," as they do not know how interest rates will look at the end of their saving phase. Whether, in the meantime, real estate prices crash, the state introduces new regulations/subsidies, one maybe wins the lottery, gets divorced, has quintuplets, or the zombie apocalypse breaks out cannot be known in advance – but this affects everyone at all times.



I think you misunderstand me. When I talk about expenses in this context, I do not mean the equity itself but the costs involved in saving it (see above). And this you (and every non-millionaire) very much do miss, and that is what I was referring to when I said that on the long list of "safeties" (you can also call it "life-essential costs in the future") some things are much more relevant/probable (e.g., purchasing a new car).



I have already read this here in the forum in another context. You DID finance the car because you still owe the bank money for the house. That is a problem every homeowner faces; all money spent during the repayment phase is burdened with interest, and the longer it "sits," the more expensive it becomes.



Good point!



Of course, no universally valid calculation can be made; every lender, every debtor, every house, every day is different, and accordingly, there are many individual financings. However, the examples were supposed to represent a plausible case in their structure, based on which considerations about the "optimal" financing concerning equity can be made. My primary concern was to question the dogma "You need X% equity."

I understand that security is important to many people. I am only skeptical about its extent. How many people here, for example, do not have (adequate) disability insurance simply because it is too expensive for them. But when it comes to lying to themselves in real estate financing, money (in the name of security) suddenly no longer matters (I am not referring to you!). How does that fit together?
 

Vanben

2016-02-12 10:28:58
  • #3


Because he started paying off the house at age 30, but the saver only started at 40. In my calculation, the 110% borrower still has €154,000 debt on the house at age 50 (3.13% interest), while the saver with 21% equity still has €141,000 debt at age 50 (2.13% interest). So it’s not entirely accurate, but regarding the argument of being able to sell flexibly at an older age, both are basically equal.

Addendum: To be fair, it should also be said that the 110% borrower’s house is probably 10 years older and thus might fetch a lower sale price.
 

Steffen80

2016-02-12 10:58:23
  • #4
Let's agree on this: Economically, saving can currently be debated. But for morality and the "feeling," it is indispensable.

Regards, Steffen <---- who pays almost 300 EUR per month for the BU
 

Vanben

2016-02-12 11:00:17
  • #5


Yes, achieving 100% loan-to-value ratio is probably worthwhile in any case, since this can be achieved within a comparatively short time and the uncertainties of the future can still be somewhat overseen.

Since you have used it several times now: What does "numerically unstable" mean? Wikipedia says it refers to "rounding errors"?
 

Musketier

2016-02-12 11:00:57
  • #6
I believe there are too many variables at play to be able to express pro or contra equity in numbers.

I just set up an example myself. If you only play with one leverage (e.g., rent, ratio of construction costs to budget) by a few € the calculation over the term already looks quite different. In the end, everyone has to decide for themselves whether they want to take the risk of over-indebtedness for a few years and therefore enjoy the comforts of their own house 10 years earlier.

Person A starts building in 2016 at 25 years old.
Equity only in the amount of incidental construction costs.
Construction costs €350,000 for house and land
Budget 1800€
of which 1500€ annuity at an interest rate of 3%
of which 300€ reserves for maintenance

Remaining debt in 2026 after 10 years 261K€
Remaining debt in 2036 after 20 years 143K€

Person B saves equity for 10 years and starts building in 2026 at 35 years old.
Budget 1800€
Cold rent 600€
Monthly savings rate 1200€ at 1% interest results in equity of 152K€ in 2026
However, the house now costs not 350K€ but, with a construction cost increase (statistics of recent years) of 3% per year, now 470K€
B therefore needs a loan of 318K€ (interest rate 2%)
Remaining debt 2036 188K€
 

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