Will construction material prices increase? Customs madness?

Of course, I am sad about the partial neglect of the community here when people talk about "sorting out people" or accuse retirees as a generation of being responsible for the "drowning of the youth."

When individual(!) people say things like that, it doesn't mean that the community in the forum is neglected. I have known such remarks for as long as I can remember and rather feel that it had decreased for a long time and we are now seeing a rollback.
And no one is to blame for that, nor is the youth being intentionally harmed. However, it is still being harmed structurally. I believe the median age in the FRG is around 48.x years. Including young refugees, mind you. The consequence: parents are no longer a truly relevant voting group. I simply recommend a book, namely "Children - Minority Without Protection by El Mafaalani, Kurtenbach, Strohmeier." By the way, it is a popular science book by three sociologists, not a doomsday prophecy. Strohmeier, I believe, has been researching childhood and growing up for about half a century.

If individuals(!) express something like that, it does not mean that the interaction in the forum has deteriorated.

I understand that, I certainly didn’t mean the members per se, but rather the kind of intermittent (non-)participation or lack of feedback here in the forum, or the diminished naturalness of giving back something to the people who are thinking along here through information about results and decisions. From my last construction period about 4 years ago, I also remember partly more friendly ties between a larger, steady group of participants and even some personal contacts as well as the intention to meet up together once. I actually experienced a number of construction projects in full scope, with pictures and discussions, and I did the same myself; that was helpful and enjoyable. I myself no longer need it for my own construction and could just as well be active in the garden forum, but for an aspiring builder I find it a pity that it is rather quiet here or sometimes almost secretive. In recent months, I have read about some early projects here where after a few pages the OP gave no further feedback. Not forbidden, but just a pity, that’s more what I meant by the term that such customs are no longer maintained.

Hello,

we want to build in the foreseeable future and are considering where building material prices will likely go over the next 12-24 months in view of America’s tariff madness. How do you assess this??? Will China fill the gap?

Hello,

the price development of building materials is currently indeed difficult to estimate, especially due to the tense global trade situation. US tariffs on Chinese products, particularly in the areas of steel, aluminum, and other industrial goods, are causing global supply chains to shift. Europe is not entirely disconnected from this either – trade flows are changing, and in some cases, prices here are also rising due to rerouting, even if no direct tariffs apply.

Additional uncertainties come into play: raw material prices are generally quite volatile, driven among other things by energy prices, geopolitical tensions, and logistical bottlenecks (e.g., freight rates, transport through the Suez Canal, etc.). Also, in China itself, there are occasionally measures (e.g., environmental protection regulations in industry) that can temporarily restrict production or lead to higher prices.

To what extent China will step in to fill the gap in the short term depends on in which areas alternatives are sought. Some markets (wood, certain plastics, semi-finished products) are significantly dependent on China, others less so. Europe is partly trying to create new sources of supply, but this often doesn’t happen quickly enough to offset price increases.

Regarding the next 12–24 months: most experts still expect price fluctuations and a generally rather high price level because uncertainties will remain. Individual products may decrease in price if, for example, inventories have been built up or demand eases (as with wood in 2023), but overall the level remains above the long-term average.

For builders, it is advisable to plan with a buffer in the calculation and to secure offers and material orders as early as possible. This reduces the risk of being surprised by short-term spikes. Moreover, a conversation with local building material dealers can be worthwhile, as they can assess which materials are likely to see tightening or easing.

Ultimately, the issue depends on many external factors – it cannot be predicted completely, but a significant price reduction is not to be expected in the short term.

Schnackischnak