There are still millions of houses in Germany that heat with oil
And they also have to switch. Therefore, I consider it risky to calculate only €10,000 for a replacement when prices frequently are already around €20,000.
Currently, there is funding, but who knows how that will be in 10 years? With cars, they also want to shift from subsidizing the new to penalizing the old.
So: a heat pump has to be installed sooner or later. Plan for €20,000 rather than €10,000. But don’t worry too much, with a house from 2000, that is not a problem at all.