11ant
2022-02-21 16:31:25
- #1
In our municipality (Bavaria), plots of land will soon be allocated again based on social criteria. We have already participated in a lottery procedure where there were 6 available plots and we were ranked 7th, so we are expecting better chances this time.
I see the question as having primarily two dimensions:
a. Clarify for yourselves whether you would consider even the "worst" plot as a "win" / an improvement of your current situation (having instead of waiting / wishing).
Besides that, b. clarify the question of how the "rules of the game" of the lottery are, for example: do the highest-scoring / first-drawn choose their favorite first and then the next ones choose from the remainder; or is each participant allowed, for example, to name three plots and the first plot goes to the highest scorer for this plot, and so on?
From that, it follows whether it might be strategically wise, for example, with three entries, to bet on an expected weakly contested plot. The possible rules are so manifold that one can hardly guess them, but only inquire. In any case, the rule will be: whoever does not know the rules cannot behave strategically, but must leave it all to luck alone. Betting that the champion ends up in first place always yields the worst odds. Hence my initial "question": would you (also) be happy with the "consolation prize"?