Here in the forum I read that. There's a topic here about electricity consumption. In my opinion, it is already about new buildings. Certainly bigger houses, but not three times as large.
And electricity is not getting more expensive?
Electricity has become more expensive in the past mainly due to political will, yes.
Meanwhile, the situation has shifted somewhat. For example, the increasing Renewable Energy Act surcharge is now capped. There is also recognition, even in conservative party programs, that electricity must become cheaper for the mobility transition. We will see what else comes.
At the same time, the CO2 pricing starts in 2021. Gas alone will become about 10% more expensive as of 01.01.21, triggered by a ridiculously low price of 25€ per ton of CO2. The price will rise to 55€ by 2025, then to 65€ in 2026. That’s the status today; let’s wait for the next federal election... the revenues from this levy are to be used, among other things, to cap electricity prices.
The Swiss are ahead of us there; they started similarly low but are already well above 100€/ton.
The Federal Environment Agency calculated in 2019 that the real price of a ton of CO2 is 640€. This includes consequential damages such as extreme weather, crop failures, etc.
You can consider what that will do to your gas bill in 10-15 years.
You can still "risk" a lifecycle for a new gas heating system now, but after that, these systems will become perversely expensive to operate, possibly even banned early from re/installation to manage the transition. Of course, then there will be nice subsidy programs for switching again, but I would already pay attention today to being able to sensibly position a heat pump later and design the underfloor heating/radiators for it.
My heat pump (geothermal drilling) uses 2300-2500 kWh of electricity annually. About 200 sqm, four people. Part of the electricity is self-generated, the rest is purchased at 19 cents/kWh as heat pump electricity.
But yes, an air-water heat pump is less efficient (although those are getting better all the time) and you can do more wrong with a heat pump. However, there are a few rules of thumb that you should consider when choosing your heating installer. Then it will work out.