Extremely high at 6-7%? Should I rummage through old files and find housing loans with 12 or 14%? You can also just conveniently calculate anything to suit yourself.
It is always the question of how high the security should/must be. 6-7% are really utopian numbers at the moment. But my parents also financed with 11% not too long ago. So I am with you on that. In the next 10 years I definitely don't see that, but anything beyond that is just guesswork.
Still, one has to ask the question from when it makes sense to rely on the building savings contract. The building savings contract also does not yet state how high the loan interest rate is (i.e. from allocation). If I calculate the installment of €1300 over 11 years, that would be an effective interest rate of 3.5% and that would already be very high for a current building savings contract.
By the way, the total interest of €55,000 is not correct, since you have neither considered the last 10 years of KFW nor the interest for the building savings contract:
- The KFW (if calculated over 30 years with a constant interest rate of 1.5%) costs €25,000
- The interest on the annuity loan at 1.43% costs €36,500 for the first 11 years
- Added to that is the interest for the building savings contract from the 11th year on. I am setting this rather low at 1.8%, then that is €17,000 for 11 years remaining term. If I take the theoretical 3.5% from your framework data, it would be €29,500
That makes a total of: €78,500 (building savings contract 1.8%) or €91,000 (building savings contract 3.5%).
If I now look at a standard annuity loan, then at 2% interest and 22 years term, €54,000 interest would accumulate. Whether you can negotiate a better interest rate than 2% with a 20-year fixed interest period I do not know. Regarding security, I would not worry, because with €25,000 remaining debt after 20 years, even 12% interest does not ruin the financing. The installment would be consistently at €1080 (plus KFW). So you pay slightly less overall, but that is also logical, since in your model you postpone repayment and therefore have to pay more interest.
The advantage of the annuity loan is usually that it is more flexible. If you really can pay less at times, you simply adjust the repayment rate. In the end, the remaining debt is indeed a bit higher, but so what. With a building savings contract, you really can’t reduce the savings rate, because otherwise the interest rate lock until allocation is not sufficient. For you, that would mean having to bridge finance after 11 years until the allocation takes place. Even for one year that gets really expensive, because you would have to pay the potentially higher interest on the full €232,000 (no cent has been repaid yet). With the annuity loan, it is "only" the remaining sum of maybe 20%. During the loan phase, you must not pay less than a minimum amount (I assume that is the €1300 in your case). If your salaries maybe develop differently in 11 years, a jump of €400 can already hurt.
But it is important that you really compare the same numbers, i.e.:
- same monthly rate
- same term