Wow, thanks for the active participation!!
: Your assumption about our current actual total debt is simply not correct. About 120 are still outstanding from the rented apartment, about 65 from the owner-occupied one. In addition, the land, of which we still have to pay off 40. That still makes about 225.
Overall, I am well aware that this is basically a real estate bet. For the rented apartment, I have already calculated earlier that I only make a loss if interest rates are over 5% in 2028 *and* the apartment has lost 25% of its value. If the interest rates are below 5%, I simply take out a new financing contract and the rent covers the installment for another 10 years. If the interest rates are over 5%, I have the option to possibly adjust the rent, contribute a little monthly, or sell the apartment. And here I would only need to get "just" 83,000 to break even. Anything below 83,000 would be my loss. I think that is an acceptable risk in metropolitan areas.
Regarding my owner-occupied apartment: The plan was from the beginning to keep the installment as low as possible in order to save equity for the house and to later deduct the interest for tax purposes when renting it out. That has worked well so far. The debt on this apartment is negligible. I earn 350 euros here (after deducting loan installment and taxes from the rent) x 12 months x 10 years = 42,000. That is almost the entire remaining debt. So for me, even if this apartment is worth 0 euros in 2028 and the interest rates are at 15%, I have not made a loss.
Therefore, I don’t really understand what is so bad or unhealthy about it? The scenario just described would be the absolute worst case... And even if that should happen, I still have a mature home savings contract for my house (which I obviously don’t want to sell as easily as the apartments), with which I can at least cushion 100,000.
Moreover, I think that real estate prices will remain relatively constant and interest rates will only increase moderately if at all. Then I could continue playing this game decade after decade...
I know I’m betting high, but I can relatively easily get out at zero... and if interest rates remain fairly constant or rents continue to rise, that is an enormous leverage.